I'm not sure where Morgan Stanley get their figures but here's some of the recent reports on market-size which I down-sized in my earlier analysis:
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY UPDATE:
GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR SALES ROSE 4.5 % IN DECEMBER
Wall Street Journal
February 12, 1998
Worldwide semiconductor sales rose 4.5% in December to $11.48 billion, ringing up a total of $137.2 billion for 1997, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association.
The 1997 total represents a 4% increase over the 1996 total of $131.97 billion and is slightly below an October forecast by the trade group of 5.5% growth for the year. Some of the disparity stems from depressed prices in DRAM memory chips and recent economic uncertainty in Asia, the group indicated in a press release.
The 1997 sales total is the second highest on record, after 1995 peak sales of $144 billion, the SIA said.
Dataquest, a market-research firm also based in San Jose, said that the Asian crisis would restrict growth in worldwide semiconductor sales to around 7% in 1998, down from a previously forecast 17%. Its new estimate of the 1998 global chip market was revised to $160 billion, down from $175 billion.
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GLOBAL CHIP SALES IN '97 UP 5.5% TO $150 BILLION
Investor's Business Daily
January 6, 1998
Researcher Dataquest says Intel remained the leader, with semiconductor sales up 19% to $21 billion. NEC held the No. 2 spot at $10.6 billion; followed by Motorola at $8 billion. The currency crisis in Asia exacerbated low memory-chip pricing. Sales at Hitachi, the No. 4 chip supplier in 1996 fell 20% as it dropped to No. 6. Toshiba held No. 5 though sales fell 7%. No. 7 Samsung's also fell 7%. [View Chart]
eiaj.org
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