"the real problem is that either we are all nuts and have been following a dead duck for the last nine months or the market has got it wrong or the market just doesnt like Eli or the company or something."
It's a matter of expectation. I have been in this stock for a couple of years, bought 500 shares as a speculation on future growth. It hung around the LOW teens (and even below that) for quite awhile. If you expect valuations like the internet companies now are getting, or like some of the biomedical stocks got a few years ago (and some still do), forget it. It's different because there are too many established companies--especially the Asian ones--that are in this market. The reason to hold is because of their patents, because they are a "pure" play in the market, and because you think that Eli can actually do what he wants to do--in the ripeness of time, build a major company.
I think it is perhaps a little undervalued here, but not hugely so at this point in its development and in the development of flash, given its competition and the early stage of the market. When MMC comes around, and digital cameras get a little more compelling, then--if things break SNDK's way--we may well see some serious flying. The MMC announcement was what drove the stock last fall to its high, but even SNDK says that they don't expect material revenue until 1999 from it (as per their annual report, which I skimmed some of last night--just arrived). By the by, we'll just have to wait or go elsewhere for serious "thrills", if that is the style you like, IMO. |
