Dennis,
Interesting connection between the PSINet acquiring
of debt, and the CIEN runup a few days ago.
My opinion is that it's too much speculation to correlate
these two events together - I think you acknowledge this in
your post.
What your post does tell me is:
1) There seems to be a constant dribble of these type
of transactions in the internet/carrier/telephone
space. I also get the feeling that the dribble is
starting to become a flurry. I correlate this
with the recent ups and downs of this stock.
2) These transactions are occuring world wide - for
instance Europe. They don't seem limited to just
the US, which is the primary users of such technology.
So, I think the industry will spread world wide
at a faster rate than other industries spread world-wide
to increase growth (ex. McDonalds, Gillete, Coke).
Another words, the growth
potential is more evident in the work that CIEN does.
3) PSInet is dealing not just with major telephone companies,
but with CLECs, ISPs and others. I interpret this
as momentum to circumvent the legacy Baby Bells that
don't come up with solutions to the most important
problem of all - bandwidth problem. What's
the good of having a Pentium II, if I can't get fast
internet access.
My thinking is that these fringe network providers are
seeing an opportunity to cash in on new technology,
and can probably increase revenues by starting to
offer not just new products, but the same old products
that the legacy telephone companies offer at a
lower cost.
Weak points of above:
Even though I've been doing a lot of reading on many
related subjects,
I still have to do quite a bit of research to validate
all I've said, and I need to understand the entire sector
much better. I don't know this sector near as well
as I should.
I'm hoping that when I get a more developed insight to
the entire industry, that I'll feel more confident on
putting more $$ into CIEN - which seems to hold a lot
of potential.
Also, this thread has a lot of good information going
back to the postings of 2-3 months ago. It's a good
way to learn more about the company/sector.
Joe |
