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Gold/Mining/Energy : Silver prices
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To: TD who wrote (1028)4/17/1998 12:57:00 PM
From: Ray Hughes  Read Replies (2) of 8010
 
<<metals price correction into May...>>
In general, metals prices exhibit highly stable seasonal patterns. One can purchase the X-11 dash 2 Variant seasonal adjustment software from the U.S. commerce department and with this, plus long term price data bases, check the seasonal patterns. I did and used the software for years as a former Wall Street Metals Securities Analyst.

However, seasonal price weakness that we once observed from about the third week of May through August has shifted, often to later months, due to the emergence of Asia as major consumers of metals. Asia has different climatic seasonal variation and different holiday patterns. So, be careful about relying on historical seasonal patterns.

That said, yes, there should be a "tendency" toward lower base metals and silver prices from now until autumn. This suggests playing silver from September through February-March for the year end holiday season when manufacturers gear up production of silver bearing gifts or of silver based photo film.

RH
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