01:18 PM ET 11/01/96
British Biotechto give new Marimastat clues
By Jonathan Birt
LONDON, Nov 1 (Reuter) - New evidence about British Biotech
Plc's anti-cancer treatment Marimastat next week will provide
important clues about its potential as a blockbuster product,
analysts said on Friday.
British Biotech is using a meeting of the European Society
of Medical Oncologists (ESMO) in Vienna to make five
presentations, including Marimastat's effects in ovarian,
colo-rectal, pancreatic and gastric cancer.
It will issue a general update on Monday morning.
The Oxford-based group has become the bellwether for the
increasingly crowded biotech field in the U.K, with sentiment
towards Marimastat having a disproportionate impact on the
sector.
Millions of pounds of investors' money has been placed on
the bet that Marimastat will turn out to be Europe's first
big-selling biotech product, with forecasts for annual sales
ranging from a few hundred million dollars to up to $4 billion.
Monday's data comes from patients who continued to use the
drug beyond the period necessary for completion of Phase II
clinical trials. The company said this meant there would be a
further six months of extra information.
Yamaichi International analyst Erling Refsum said he hoped
to see the first hard evidence that patients were living longer
as a result of taking Marimastat. Refsum said the surrogate
marker data provided so far was like "the indicator board at the
train station rather than the train actually coming."
In a note on the trials Lehman Brothers analyst Ian Smith,
who will attend the ESCO meeting, said it might be possible to
glean indications of the effect of Marimastat on patient
survival in ovarian and pancreatic cancer.
There will also be interest in Marimastat's impact on gastric
cancer, where little information has so far been available. And
analysts are keen to see how serious the side effects caused by
the drug are. The main problem reported so far is joint pain.
Yamaichi's Refsum said the results are "not definitive as to
whether it works or not, but it is another indication as to
whether it will sell or won't sell, and that is the bottom
line." Lehman's Smith added that the results "won't prove
Marimastat's efficacy but will raise the probabilities."
British Biotech will announce late-stage data on another key
product, pancreatitis drug Lexipafant, on November 27.
Smith said that favourable news on both drugs could lift the
group's share price to 300 pence by the end of the month from
230 at Friday's close. But Refsum is more sceptical about the
potential impact of Marimastat and said 150 pence is "reasonable
value" for the shares.
A British Biotech spokeswoman said Phase III Marimastat
trials are likely to take two years to complete, meaning that
the first results would not be available until 1998 at the
earliest. But she said British Biotech would probably make
academic presentations at conferences like ESMO from time to
time to keep the market up to date.
Late stage trials on pancreatic cancer started in June, and
trials in small-cell lung cancer, ovarian cancer, gastric cancer
and a form of brain cancer are being set up, she added. |
