I am "close" to the industry. Watch out for false information. 8 lines by early next year huh. As of last month they had not even picked a location for the new factory. Also, as far as I know the additional shares they registered to float to finance the plant had not gone into the market. Yes, they could sell more fiber if they had it - so could everyone else in the industry. However, the world market for carbon fiber is only 25 million pounds for all types and only 4 million for large tow. Note that the capacity numbers which are floated are theoretical numbers, the actual output varies from 50-70%.
As far as the Hungarian precursor - again if (IF) they can successfully convert their precursor into carbon fiber with good properties, they will have an advantage over buying from Courtalds. However, they still have to pay shipping and a US duty (8%) to import the precursor. Note that all the small tow manufacturers already make their own precursor and most of them are also big acrylic suppliers (Mitsubishi Rayon, Toray, Toho). If and when these guys decide to enter the large tow market, Zoltek and Akzo will have trouble.
The airbag application is actually for the igniter (not much product per part, but lots of parts) - they already have this business, real question is where are the new applications that will drive growth.
Do your own research, but IMO you will still be waiting for 2X revenue at this time next year.
Good luck. |
