<<If one actually does a more sophisticated regression model, the numbers come out slightly below this around 47% for revenues and 43% for earnings.>>
Wow. That is some pretty fancy math. You better tell MRVC about it too, as they reported 93% EPS growth for 1997, - the same as my simple calcs, except that they used the $0.89 EPS figure, while I used their lower $0.88 one.
<<Oh, one more thing, using this method, one can do a pretty good job predicting future revenues, revenue growth, earnings, and earnings growth. For example, one year from now, based on the past data, revenues should be around 69 million for that quarter and earnings of around 35 cents -- to get these numbers you have to integrate under the functions. So, I still think that 40% growth is a very good estimate, and perhaps more importantly, we should note that the variance in these estimates is quite large. Good luck Sector. Do you agree with the analysis?>>
I think that MRVC will hit or exceed those numbers by Q4 (9 months), not 1 year. They should report $60M in revenues or close THIS quarter, and EPS (before acquisition charges) should be $0.28-$0.30. They may even be closing in on them in 6 months.
Bookmark this post and we will see. |
