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Sector, Well, although MRVC announced those numbers, if we are to try to predict current and future growth, we have to use a different method. In any case, I hope you're correct about MRVC's future growth, I'm holding alot of stock and even more calls! Cheers Ah, what the heck, let me take one more shot at my point: MRVC announced growth of 91% in earnings for 1997, but that figure is somewhat close to the average growth rate over the year. While that is interesting, we should probably be more interested in the current growth. It could have been the case that MRVC had 500% growth in the first quarter and subsequent NEGATIVE growth, in which case, I would estimate future growth as being negative, while you would estimate their future growth based on the summary statistic of 91%! Or, it could have been the case that MRVC's growth was slow the first half of the year, then picked up. In this case, I would forcast higher growth than you. So what is the actual case with MRVC? Well, MRVC's growth has
slowed down over the past year (that's why the slope of the regression lines were negative). So, current growth (and likely future growth) will be slower than the average of 91%. Furthermore, there is a statistical bias using your's and MRVC's method. MRVC uses the "traditional method" because that's the one that everyone uses and understands, but it doesn't contain as much information as my method. Cheers, and go MRVC!!! |
