lisa...i don't think david miscounted his waves. i have stated before that i am a hack at waves and have not made that many SPX or OEX trades, because i am a hack. i believe his read looked valid going into the Easter weekend and may still be valid. But here is what i think is the problem: the timing. we are right in the heat of earnings. there is, as always a $$gazillion pouring in. the index is the whole ball of wax, in order for the index to take a big hit... big money is going to have to get nervous and start to bail out.. they are NOT going to bail when less than 35% of the S&P companies have reported. and more than 1/2 have met or exceeded(sure there are many downward revisions but thats another amazing story). Some of the big money is rotating out of those that disappoint and pouring into those that meet or exceed and this process will not ALLOW the index to crater. Since everything is perfect right now (low inflation, blah, blah, gag,puke) the earnings part of FA rules....even MOT, INTC and KO had little affect, but once earnings wind down things may be different. look at October, market runs up thru earnings then towards the end...WHAMMO "hey maybe this Asian thing should be considered". David picked an EW pattern that said"WARNING,WARNING possible big plonk...his read was right and the index tried to do a swan dive, it was down another 10 on Globex last night, but the big money looked at the fall this morning and said"hell, i'm not getting shaken out in the middle of earnings, thanks for the chance to place another $billion at lower prices. if this wave had come at the end of April i think it would have played out.... and technically it still may not of been violated .....this whole series may be getting stretched out horizontally. with earnings and expiry this may be the wildcard wave(my new theory, i'll publish a newsletter). i love charts, did it on the floor of the CBOT about a hundred years ago....but in the long they don't dictate where the price is going, FA does. i use them with every trade to determine entry and exit points. occasionally, if i see a text book head&shoulders, or inverted one, etc. i'll place a trade solely on that (with a stop), just for the thrills. i played this wave down, then up, and did fine the first week, took some money off the table, got back in with some and dumped out this morning MY NET? i did worse than James on XCIT, i lost $120, but it was fun and worth the risk, and i will buy more OEX puts or a spread soon cause i think a serious correction is in store once earnings play out. meanwhile i had a wonderful position in TDFX calls that got me a bunch of play money to piss away trying to pick this top.
David disappeared after his call in January for a big run up.....kind of like.."HEY, WHO WAS THAT MASKED MAN?" i wish he would hang around more often for some input .
Carl |
