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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (17985)	4/18/1998 4:16:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) of 50167

Walkabout in the global mart- the world is our backyard. DJIA-- I see DJIA sitting at 9168 -- a solid close. I see 9170 as a resistance and with little of effort would like to see 9290 -9350 as next target if 9170 is broken twice. From 6692 to 8344 the first move of this long painful bull leg for shorts in my opinion ran 24% give and take few points. Now my next point where BHUMBO 2 came in was supposedly 7518 if I add 1652 the difference between the first BHUMBO 1 support and resistance I get to 9170- right here where we are now. Monday, seems to be a big day and also the next week something is brewing as lot of indexes globally and domestically sit at a very precarious resistance's. I will highlight them and try to co-relate all this with my overall strategy. FTSE-- My last post on this 5800 support with a benefit of hindsight looks good, we have seen a lot of selling in UK and expect that FTSE and DAX will remain under pressure until this gap is filled with 20 days MA. .I will look to selectively go long if I have some special stocks in UK at around 5800 levels. One needs to refine it further and have to see global markets on day to day basis because changes in circumstances may lead to even lower entry points. Our purpose is to help the most feasible entry point IOHO. DAX- We expected DAX to retrace in an effort to consolidate that exactly has happened. Sitting at 5268- I would like DAX to retrace more and I think at around 5070 give and take 50 points. I will be happy to make my picks however if DJIA breaks 9000, in the interim, I will wait until dust settles as correction in DJIA will be mirrored initially in FTSE/ CAC 40 / DAX. CAC 40 -- Touched our 20 days MA and moved up 15 points looks like a more stable configuration in comparison with DAX. The rebound from 3861 is a good sign and I will like to see positions established if Monday sees a similar action. Nikkei-- Like a nemesis it still makes moves which flabbergasts me. I have such a aggressive view on Nikkei that I think by 1999 June anyone long Japan will be making finest returns. I expect P/E ratios to drop from 76 to 30 and earnings to growth to be reversed from minus 45% to plus 350 %. Although Comerzbank reports are more positive I have made them a little diluted. Lets get back to basic and try to see what Nikkei is upto. 16470 is a formidable immediate resistance. RSI at 35 can at 30 be one of the most screaming combination with a chart pattern clearly signaling a kind of long basing action. I recommend for long term view allocations to Japan. Banking and some good stocks see very little chance of test of old lows. However I must warn this is not a play for faint hearted but ofcourse I will keep Rayhan Zain Zachary education fund allocation in Japanese market expecting a good reversal and solid gains within few years. Remember Citicorp back in 90's a 9 $ stock picked up by Price Waleed just last week Price walled made a cool 1.5 billion $ on his 40 million shares. One of the most shrewdest investor his opinion is enter at a time when blood is on the streets he a Saudi is reliving Rothchilds investment game indicates the new vistas of global boundary less world. Hang Seng-- I would think break of Nikkei below this present level and HSI sitting at 20 days MA at 11001 will not bode well for global markets. Very strange to see that lot of DOWQ indexes are sitting and probing resistance's but Hang Seng Straits and Nikkei sit on very critical support levels. I can make two cases out of it either we are on a top and about to reverse or ASEA is about to turnaround after well deserved and required test of supports. Read this with composites and OEX such combination is a sign and indicator of a major move. Up or down I am betting on up I will think that we sprung up from these levels in ASEA and along with this we will see the composite 1866 resistance of 1870 pierced thru-- even DJ composite sits on 2960 and I see that 2962 would mean a breakout- read this in conjunction with OEX 544 my level before we are at 542 and SPX at 1122-- if old highs are taken out next week as I expect the party needs to start from ASEA. We possibly cannot keep going up in US if ASEA fails to bounce from what is likely a good basis to bounce from. If we break this supports like HSI 10800 Nikkei 15800 Straits 1515 and with most of these RSI's at 35-30 we would face a similar situation like Oct blues so lets expect that our strategy based on bounce off these supports comes out to be true otherwise I would look at this move up to 1122 and 542 SP 500 and 100 as a double topping action. One of the most interesting chart is bouncing action of NYSE composite at 584 it has tested 20 days MA in last few days and is looking good. Is action going to come from a run on composite still remains to be seen but ASEA keep an eye continued weakness below the critical levels over a week or so will not be tolerated by global markets. Thanks and Best regards. Bi Bi.

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