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Strategies & Market Trends : Graham and Doddsville -- Value Investing In The New Era
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To: porcupine --''''> who wrote (185)4/18/1998 10:37:00 AM
From: Freedom Fighter  Read Replies (2) of 1722
 
Porc,

>"[T]he same tide that carried the financial markets to such splendid
>gains from the final months of 1990 ... has turned and is powerfully
>running the other way. It seems to us, for investors, that's the most
>important thing we need to know, maybe the only thing they need to
>know." Alan Abelson, dean of Barron's columnists, on 1/9/95 with the >Dow
>at 3867, a few points from its low for the year.

We all know timing is virtually impossible. I didn't agree with Mr. "A" at that time. Nor did many of the other responsible magazines, newspapers, analysts etc.. If however, earnings were to fall and PEs were to decline to average and stocks fell to 4000 and stayed there for a while...Would you consider Mr. A vindicated/correct from a general market "Value" point of view. Keep in mind that I am making the assumption that timing is IMPOSSIBLE. Only valuation is possible.

It could very well be that his analysis of the Market values was not far off but his analysis of the competency of central bankers WAS!
That is the essence of many of the bear's case. We have asset inflation due to incompetent/irresponsible central bankers with payback to come. That was what THE ECONOMIST was trying to say in a NICE way!
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