well its just a big game and nobody has come up with a fool proof method yet. long term, of course, you just start buying stocks when you are 12 with your paper route money and continue buying and holding until the day you day...then you can pass it on to your kids....or you can start to take it out at retirement to live on it...then, of course, when you go to retire the market will be in a ten year vicious bear cycle and Peter Lynch might say "just hold for the long run" maybe you can out live the bear and be 87 and on life support. and what happens when all us baby boomers start retiring at once and want our money at the same time Peter? so there is always a justification for any situation. anyone that laughs at TA (Tea leave Analysis) doesn't understand it. i worked at CBOT years ago, and yes, commodities are different, but every single broker had charts and in the absence of crop reports and other fundamentals the prices were determined by charts. every brokerage on wall street has a TA department...so since they all see the same TA we get trading ranges with levels of support and resistance.........how many times do you see people posting messages on an individual stock that says " how come it went down for three days, there is no news, this makes no sense" IT'S TA TRADING STUPID. i just try to get get the odds in my favor with voodoo and so do you, but it doesn't always work . or it happens 2 days later or you get greedy and don't cash out on a double hoping for a 5 bagger..sound familiar? if EW or whatever ALWAYS worked those using it would make Bill Gates look poor. regardless of all this babbling i do not think the market will make it out of the May expiry without a more serious correction and I'm willing to bet on it. so, of course, it will get tanked starting Monday after the May expiry, right?
carl |
