an observation.....over last several weeks i have been up late and have kept an eye on Globex....on several occasions the S&P was down 4-7 in the middle of the night but by open the next morning they had climbed back to 1 or 2 down. the 1-2 down indicates flat to +20 open...and that's what happens. the 4-7 would be 50+ down.....well several minutes after the open down goes the DOW to -50-60....same scenario happened in reverse, down in middle of night, 5-7, neutral at the open....DOW opens flat, goes up a bit , then drains 50-60 points.
Thursday night Globex had S&P down 10.5 in the middle of the night, by open Friday morning they were -2....DOW opens flat to up a little and within minutes splat it tanks and S&P tanks....then bounced up the rest of the day. Because of what happened the night before I was ready to dump and got $6+ for my April 540, made some money on them. also had 520's, bought between $.875-$1.125.
Dumped them for $.3125, they didn't have a snowballs chance in hell, so I took what i could get. whole play cost me just over $100. I still have some May 520 that I bought (partially with profit from first move down, when I cashed 1/2 position on April 8th). they are underwater right now.
Point of this post is that I am wondering if this relationship with late night trading vs the next day is a fairly reliable indicator of how the next day will play out early. if so, it could help with the procrastination factor. any thoughts?
carl |
