Doug,
Thanks for going back and reading the post. I agree with you that the risk seems small, although we might find out otherwise if there are any significant unforseen problems.I just find it very difficult to quantify the upside in any meaningful way. I guess I'm hopeful that the added credibility really will lead to some large infrastructure contracts. I'm not sure I'm a believer in the handset business, unless of course if global demand were to outstrip supply, which I can't believe will happen.Other manufacturers have incomparable experience,(all these defective units we keep hearing about) although the Sony joint v. must be of great help and I assume the Q is a quick study.Maybe G* handsets will prove far more profitable than the norm, but how many will there be? I really can imagine that outdoor enthusiasts here in the US for example, the kind of people who can afford the phones, might find the thought of remaining connected no matter where one goes quite appealing. Just think about it, SI always at your fingertips as you float the Grand Canyon, trading the day away :)....What I'm really wondering about is what happens after the big royalty runup we're all looking forward to.If Q is qoing to be more than a coupon clipper as you once so succinctly put it, then I think they'll have to be seriously competitive on the infrastructure side.
All of these unknowns are of course major contributors to volatility in the stock price, which makes it very difficult to be a real buy and holder of the company, especially in the face of the spectacular run so many others are enjoying.When she starts to move up she's going to the moon, CDMA is taking over the world, we'll be at 100 before you know it, better get on board.. Woops, what happened? It's a bumpier road than previously imagined. Better get out before it's too late..Sound familiar? It would be nice if G* could somehow put some of these issues to bed.
I'm also beginning to wonder if the Q will really be hitting its' stride just when other macroforces start to drag our beloved market back down to earth.This issue of Business Week has only served to underscore my belief that if the Euro is at all successful it will be a potent magnet for global capital, sucking money out of our stock market which will cause treasury receipts to shrink and force up interest rates.I think we may look back and find that for those of us not residing in the immediately affected regions,Asia's currency crisis was a nonevent in comparison.It seems to me that there is just too much pent up demand for modernization in the developing world for what's happened to be much more than a glitch. A return to agrarian based lifestyles has been tried and proven, at least for the moment, to be unattractive.Unfortunately for the environment of our dear planet,there is no real alternative to doing the things that are required to attract capital so that one can industrialize etc. The outperformance of the Portugese and Spanish markets recently are testimony to belief that with the advent of the Euro, capital will flow from wealthier Europ.nations to where it can be used most productively. Money will flow back to Asia as well, away from here. There's only so much restructuring you can do,unless we really are entering a period of global monopoly capitalism where the winner takes all and these mergers, buyouts etc. go on until GE is the only company remaining.
Of course the success or failure of the Euro will take some time to determine.Money is probably already flowing in our direction to avoid the uncertainty. At best it's going to be very disruptive. Throw in some Y2k and the brew starts to get quite spicy...
I'm editing my wife's masters thesis at the moment and looking for diversion which might partially explain the length of this diatribe.
P.S
We had a brief back and forth last week about whether or not you were in the US or not. I assumed that when you wondered if NY qualified you meant NYC hence " a small island.."
Dave |
