Graham and Doddsville -- Value Investing In The New Era Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Graham and Doddsville -- Value Investing In The New Era

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To: Freedom Fighter who wrote (188)	4/18/1998 3:06:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (1) of 1722

I think Greenspan is not at all incompetent. I think he is worried about the market's "irrational exuberance". He is also worried that tightening in the U.S., given the Asian and especially the Japanese backdrop, could trigger, rather than head off a crash. I also agree that asset inflation -- really just market inflation, til now, in most parts of the country -- is becoming an issue. I don't think the market is necessarily so far ahead of itself given the inflation outlook. I do think that the current pace is unsustainable. The 20s really were a period of unprecedented technological and mass marketing advances. Radio, autos, roads, oil, etc. The market got really ahead of itself especially in the last year, 1929. The depth of the succeeding depression had more to do with central bank mismanagement than anything else, I think. I imagine we will have a crash, probably more a la 87 than 29 or Japan 89. But we'll probably need a catalyst. Unless the market gets quite a bit more ahead of itself than it is. (And so far, other than Wall St. types in the Hamptons, etc.) the market boom doesn't seem to be leading to wild spending. Rather boomers are just socking it away relentless for a nice retirement. No? Doug

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