The random walk theory:
for those of you that have not read the book, i will sumarize it. it states basically that stocks take a random path and and that currently available information is not helpful as it has already been factored in to its existing stock price (see more on the subject of competitive markets). this is the basic idea.
i know- you think you are so smart...that with the same info...you can beat me and everyone else. yeah, right. As proof, the professors that wrote this book demonstrated that the 100s of millions of research dollars that assist top fund managers in picking stocks- results a sub-par performance. in fact, roughly 80% of fund managers continously fail to outperform the S&P500. i had class with a professor intimately involved with the works of these u of c professors and he told me that he had lost some money once upon a time and will never pick stocks again...imagine that, a finance professor with all that finance knowledge and will not play...
so, what am i getting at. DGIV. what is the logical reason why this stock can have such abnormal stock gains and digest them....it is easy. because we are some of the only people doing the necessary research on this company. we know more about DGIV than most other invetors/traders. once dgiv becomes followed, you will not see 1800% returns in 2 months. i do not think YHOO will go from 120 to over 2000 by June!!!. so, realize one thing. where we have come from means little as few people knew about DGIV until now....as we move forward the gains will be slower than before, but still fast. once we have nasdaq listing, we will move even slower. as we receive more and more coverage, the risks will go down and the returns will follow.
my opinion, for what it is worth....put everything you can afford to lose into DGIV...it will PROBABLY make you very wealthy...and the sooner the better. you may suffer loses, but i doubt it.
i have looked at every suggestion that has come onto this thread...i don't have nearly the same level of enthusiam for those companies as i do for DGIV. remember, folks, that businesses are built on repeat customers. it costs 8x as much (or so) to find a new customer as it does to retain an existing one (something i remember from marketing classes). so, we HAVE REPEAT OR RESIDUAL BUSINESS. just like the insurance companies thatbecame giants with the residuals from homeowners, workers, etc. we HAVE AND ARE SIGNING CONTRACTS FOR A STEADY STREAM OF CASH FOR YEARS TO COME. so, don't go nuts over a media company signing one big contract...is is great...but not the same in our case. having 10 contracts for $1M is more safe than having 1 contract for $10M. it may cost a bit more to administer, but it is much safer (see Porter's 5 force model)
well, if anyone considers this hype....i will see ya in the teens and tell me what you think then. this train is not stopping to fast.
dwlima |
