Resurrecting a dead board-
Time again to think about HDTV, DTV and the future coalescence between NTSC, PC's, digital surround sound and incredible resolution as represented in HDTV.
The transition to HDTV has been inordinately delayed and if it were up to the broadcasters, my guess is that they wish it would go away. The broadcasters will be the first step of many in what I envision will rival the advent and dominance of the PC in the 80's and 90's. Why? HDTV is an incredible viewing experience that will create its own consumer demand, far outstripping the various supporting industries abilities to keep up with the demand. The problem is getting the process out of the gate. However, once it starts, the convergence of digital communication and TV will be the next wave of where entertainment, commercial activity, and education, information will emerge. NSM's Brian Halla has the vision of 'information appliances'. I can well believe that these will emerge in the first wave of new technology purchases of the 21st century. And the market is HUGE. Not only the saturated market of the PC, but the totally untapped market of all those who have TV's (99+% of the population) who have not also purchased a PC.
So lets begin a discussion of:
1) the sequence of unfolding events and their commercial significance.
2) companies best suited to profit from this revolution.
My current belief is that the waves will be:
1) broadcast equipment and station hardware
2) digital TV components for the consumer side, - set-top boxes, and TV's themselves.
3) the unfolding programming and technologies that will naturally expand the use of this new medium.
My current interests re early equipment purchases:
1) station equipment -
Acrodyne - a pure play in the transmitter business with some specialized technology. A low cost supplier with attractive operating costs for the broadcasters
Harris - a big player in complete turnkey operations for the initial entrants (top 10 stations by May 1999). Good company with good technology. Problem here is that it is also a huge company and digital TV equipment is a small part of the operation.
SGS-Thomson - owns Comark, a transmitter company with middle of the road technology, neither a Harris or an Acrodyne. Also buried in SGS-THomson which has its hands in a lot of other technologies.
Andrew - the antenna and cable company. Excellent company set to take advantage of the infrastructure build out of the PCS market with many products. Small enough and pure enough to profit from the upcoming digital TV, digital communication evolution.
Sony - lots of digital cameras and equipment. Big, but in the TV game with handds also in the TV/monitor end.
Leitch Tech - small company with equipment for programming
Lot's of Other's -
please post your interests and thoughts about these and other likes and dislikes.
- My current favorite horse here is Acrodyne. Small cap, pure play and focused in one area. Close behind is Andrew.
2) receiving equipment
Zenith - all their eggs seems to be riding on HDTV, DTV. They have the broadcast standard, they have set-top boxes, and they make the TV's. I like this play, but the company is teetering on insolvency with complicated relationship to LGE - Goldstar, a Korean company faced with its own liquidity issues.
Lucent, Zenith, General Instrument, Mitsubishi - chip sets for demodulation, multiplexing, de-encoding , etc. There are a number of players in this game, many of the semi-conductor manufacturers will probably compete. Hard to tell who will be the winner here. Anyone have any ideas?
BMC Industries - makes TV and monitor masks. Also in the plastic eyeglass business and hardware photo-etch business. Company has made a significant investment in new mask lines in preparation for anticipated demand for TV, monitor masks. They sell to almost every big TV tube manufacturer.
Lot's of others
3) This is a more speculative and interesting area which will see burgeoning growth. The winners in this group could be really spectacular.
Integratation of PC's and DTV - Microsoft, Intel, Sun, National Semiconductor, Programming entities and content providers like Dreamworks, Intuit, etc.
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What are your current favorites and dislikes? |
