Gold/Currency Warning!!
The following posts (taken from Kitco) reveal a very extreme view of what may happen to the currency and metals markets. Does anyone have an opinion on the accuracy of these posts, and the likelihood of the proposed scenario?
FWIW:
Date: Sun Sep 14 1997 21:12
ANOTHER (an answer?):
This could be an answer directed to the "Red Baron"?
The CBs are becoming "primary suppliers" to the gold market. Understand
that they are not doing this because they want to, they have to.
The words are spoken to show a need to raise capital but we knew that was a
screen from long ago. You will find the answer to the LBMA problem if you
follow a route that connects South Africa, The middle east, India and then
into Asia!
Remember this; the western world uses paper as a real value, but oil and
gold will never flow in the same direction.
Big Trader
Date: Sun Oct 05 1997 21:29
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
Everyone knows where we have been. Let's see where we are going!
It was once said that "gold and oil can never flow in the same direction".
If the current price of oil doesn't change soon we will no doubt run out of
gold. This line of thinking is very real in the world today but it is never
discussed openly. You see oil flow is the key to gold flow. It is the
movement of gold in the hidden background that has kept oil at these low
prices. Not military might, not a strong US dollar, not political pressure,
no it was real gold. In very large amounts. Oil is the only commodity in
the world that was large enough forgold to hide in. Noone could make the
South African / Asian connection when the question was asked, "how could
LBMA do so many gold deals and not impact the price". That's because oil is
being partially used to pay for gold! We are going to find out that the
price of gold, in terms of real money ( oil ) has gone thru the roof over
these last few years. People wondered how the physical gold market could be
"cornered" when it's currency price wasn't rising and no shortages were
showing up? The CBs were becoming the primary suppliers by replacing openly
held gold with CB certificates. This action has helped keep gold flowing
during a time that trading would have locked up. ( Gold has always been
funny in that way. So many people worldwide think of it as money, it tends
to dry up as the price rises. ) Westerners should not be too upset with the
CBs actions, they are buying you time!
So why has this played out this way? In the real world some people know
that gold is real wealth no matter what currency price is put on it. Around
the world it is traded in huge volumes that never show up on bank
statements, govt. stats., or trading graph paper. The Western governments
needed to keep the price of gold down so it could flow where they needed it
to flow. The key to free up gold was simple. The Western public will not
hold an asset that going nowhere, at least in currency terms. ( if one can
only see value in paper currency terms then one cannot see value at all )
The problem for the CBs was that the third world has kept the gold market
"bought up" by working thru South Africa! To avoid a spiking oil price the
CBs first freed up the publics gold thru the issuance of various types of
"paper future gold". As that selling dried up they did the only thing they
could, become primary suppliers! And here we are today. In the early 1990s
oil went to $30++ for reasons we all know. What isn't known is that it's
price didn't drop that much. You see the trading medium changed. Oil went
from $30++ to $19 + X amount of gold! Today it costs $19 + XXX amount of
gold! Yes, gold has gone up and oil has stayed the same in most eyes. Now
all govts. don't get gold for oil, just a few. That's all it takes. For
now! When everyone that has exchanged gold for paper finds out it's real
price, in oil terms they will try to get it back. The great scramble that
"Big Trader" understood may be very, very close.
Now my friends you know where we are at and with a little thought , where
we are going.
Date: Tue Oct 07 1997 22:37
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
The market is changing now,,, it will go up but you will not be happy with
the outcome.
Why did LBMA go public?
Ever notice how many important middle eastern people keep a residence in
London. It's not because of the climate. The most powerful banks in the
world today are the ones that trade oil and gold. It is in the "city" that
the deals are done by people who understand "value"! Westerners should be
happy that they do because the free flow of oil and gold has allowed this
economic expansion to continue this past few years.
Understand that oil is still traded for a certain number of US$ but after
the deal is done a certain amount of gold is also purchased "with the
future flow of oil as collateral". If the world price of gold gets to high
then the oil price is falling. So long as gold stays cheap in currency
terms oil will be in good supply.
Too hard to follow? If real physical gold trading dries up it's price will
rise forcing down the value of oil. All this year physical gold volume kept
drying up as paper short volume exploded. But,each time before a squeeze
started to run the price the CBs would sell thru LBMA . You see, when paper
trading ( of anything ) volume dries up it's a bearish sign but when real
physical gold volume drops it's bullish! Thats because gold is being
cornered on a scale never seen in history. LBMA is doing it's best to show
real volume exists! The problem is, "if the CBs don't expand their roll as
"primary suppliers" LBMA will implode and in the process create the
greatest bull market in oil and gold the world has ever seen. That is why
some "Big Traders" are holding ONLY gold as events unfold. Interesting,
don't you think?
Date: Thu Oct 09 1997 19:00
ANOTHER ( THOUGHTS! ) ID#60253:
"Gold is the only money the world has ever known" Sounds like a simple
thought but it isn't .
" Money is whatever people say it is" - Not true!
"Currency is whatever a government says it is" - True!
"The LBMA problem"
I can now make clear for all to see.
Background; to understand the following you must rethink your basic
knowledge of money and investments. Get your aspirin ready.
Some time ago gold not only was used as money but also circulated as
currency. It had always been money and people had no use for a separate
currency to represent "gold money" so they stamped the gold itself and used
it as circulating currency. From the start, one thing most thinkers can't
quite grasp is that "money does not have to circulate"! The first "world
money", gold money that is, could stay locked up and still represent value
and wealth. People had but to agree on who owned it in exchange for goods
and services. You have all read the articles about how paper receipts for
"gold money" were later circulated and became paper currency receipts, then
paper currency, then just currency. The western world today, as we know it
does not use money ! They use "paper currency". To fully understand what
that really means you must come to terms with this fact. " When you use
paper currency you are placing a value using another persons concept of
value" You are using a thought as a means of value! When an investment in
stocks, bonds, bank accounts, CASH, businesses etc. is priced in US$
currency you are really holding the "intentions of providing value" locked
away in the thoughts of another mind. This type of human interaction works
well for a time, as the last 100 years or so proves. But, it is highly
unstable to say the least. It has it's own self distruct code written
inside each mind. One day ( it has already started ) a type of nuclear
chain reaction will occur in the currency markets as people start
"unvalueing" the thoughts of others. Little by little all debts owed will
be marked down .
Now that we understand that concept let's move on:
One of the great money troubles facing the western currency system today is
that many third world people are starting to put a "mind value" on real
money, gold. These people don't know the true value of gold money but they
know it's worth a whole lot more than the world paper currency price now
placed on it. And that brings us to the next problem; how can paper
currency that represents "the thoughts of a nation blowing in the wind" be
used to value real money of ancient world class proportions, gold? It
cannot! Any price you can think of will do, as in no price will work!
How did we come to this unworkable mess?
The best way to rework the publics mind about gold money was by changing
the way it was viewed.
"It's money of course but let's also call it a "commodity! Then we can
place a "paper" value on it and denominate it in all forms of future
contracts. It will lose it's true value as money in peoples minds and be
priced in an unrealistic paper format." And here we are today! The banks
must sell all the gold they have to keep the system togeather. And once it
is all sold and the financial markets implode the nations will use
"whatever force is necessary" to pull the gold back in! That action in and
of itself would show the true value of gold money!
What of the LBMA mess?
Gold is cornered. Plain and simple. No complicated theories, no options
problems. The commodity value of gold was forced so low in paper currency
terms that all of the new mined gold, going out some 10 years is spoken
for. Between the third world buying physical gold and the jewelry industry
( same people buying ) there is none left for the oil states! They do value
oil in terms of gold, but not IN the paper currency price of gold! How much
is gold worth in terms of oil value? Just stop supplying gold to them in
ultra cheep US$ terms and you will find out by watching the currency price
of oil! In any event, LBMA has traded so much paper/oil/gold that any rise
in the currency price of gold will implode them. The CBs must become the
full primary suppliers of gold or the system as we know it is done.
One last note: No form of paper wealth will survive the financial crush
once the CBs stop selling!
NOTHING!
Date: Fri Oct 10 1997 17:26
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
Yes, we could go into details about the LBMA mess. But why? They are in way
over their heads and the final outcome is on it's way. A big change in the
gold market actually started last spring. You couldn't tell by the charts
or news stories but it had the CB trading rooms going nuts. Up untill then
they were using 3rd party transactions to sell, then the boomshell hit that
the Merchant Banks were doing deals for 10 to 20 times what was offered!
Well "boys will be boys" and someone is now stuck, big time! That's why
"Big Trader" and his bunch closed out all paper and pulled in bullion.
Don't worry about the CBs selling everything, the market is huge compared
TO WHAT THEY HAVE! And Comex is nothing, if "only a silly game". Worldwide
trading in gold could be cut in half and still equal all the metal in
existance! The CBs will have to sell outright now even as the currency
price of gold starts to run away from them!
The market is changing now,,, it will go up but you will not be happy with
the outcome.
Date: Sun Oct 12 1997 10:42
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
How DO they do it?
It's more complicated than this but here is a close explanation. In the
beginning the CBs didn't sell their own gold. They ( thru third party )
found someone else who had bullion. That "party" sold to a broker who sold
forward for a mine or speculator or government ) . In the end the 3rd party
had the backing from the broker that he had backing from the CB to supply
physical if needed to put out a fire. The CB held a very private note from
the broker as insurance and was paid a small fee. This process mobilized
free standing bullion outside the government stockpiles. The world currency
gold price was kept down as large existing physical stockpiles were
replaced by notes of future delivery from the merchant banks ( and anyone
else who wanted to play ) . This whole game was not lost on some very large
buyers WHO WANTED GOLD BUT DIDN'T WANT IT'S MOVEMENT TO BE SEEN! Why not
move a little closer to the action by offering cash directly to the
broker/bank ( to be lent out ) in return for a future gold note that was
indirectly backed by the CBs. That "paper gold" was just like gold in the
bank. The CBs liked it because no one had to move gold and it took BIG
buying power off the market that would have gunned the price! It also
worked well as a vehicle to cycle oil wealth for gold as a complete paper
deal.
Are you with me?
Well a funny thing happened right after the Gulf war ended. What looked
like big money before turned out to be little money as some HK people, I'll
call them "Big Trader" for short, moved in and started buying all the notes
and physical the market offered. The rub was that they only bought low, and
lower and cheaper. They never ran the price and they never ran out of
money. Seeing this, some people ( middle east ) started to exchange their
existing paper gold for the real stuff. From that time, early 1997 LBMA was
running full speed just to stay in one spot! In other words paper volume
had to increase to the physical volume on a worldwide scale, and that was
going to be one hell of a jump. It could not be hidden from the news any
longer. This was not far from the time that "Big Trader" said that "if gold
drops below $370 the world would see trading volume like never before
seen". The rest is history. Now the CBs will have to sell 1/3 to 1/2 of
their gold just to cover whats out there. To use the Queens English "it
ain't gona happen dude"!
Everything is now upside down and reversed. The more the CBs sell outright
the more the price will rise.
It's not a bearish sign anymore. They will now sell to keep the price
rising slowly.
What of those T-bonds and the US$?
More later.
Date: Sun Oct 19 1997 09:42
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
There is only one oil state that counts! Only one! They have made it very
clear how important gold is to them. If they had started buying outright,
gold would have gone to $5,000+ in days. And only a very few million ozs.
would have been purchased! The message has been for some years, "we will
accumulate thru the back door, using paper deals if you keep the price at
or below the cost of production". Do this and oil will remain THE driving
force of the world economy!
FAIL THIS AND WE WILL PRICE GOLD IN DOLLARS AT THE TRUE VALUE OF OIL TO THE
WORLD!
You see, gold is not a commodity. The CBs have used every weapon to keep
it's price low . Understand me, Gold is now, today, a devalued currency
being used in world trade! Do you think the CBs are selling gold to keep
the dollar strong? They don't have to sell to accomplish that feat! CB gold
( one billion ozs.? ) valued at it's current commodity price is only worth
300 billion, it's nothing in that price range! They know what it's US$
price is worth in terms of oil!
They are not stupid as they show.
You should not think they are dumb! Invest in gold mines, will you? Notice
how quick the Australian CB hinted at taking "gold in the ground" if
needed. This was said after their sale! The nature of the coming crisis
will make the taking of investor property a piece of cake. You see, because
gold is a commodity, you will be compensated at the commodity price of
return + a fair profit, of course.
How much further can they take this? The world private stockpiles that
could be sold have been. The CBs are heavy into their own stuff now and are
over their heads if they had to make good on all the private deals ( read
my other posts ) . The economic game is ending now and has been from the
start of 1997! Watch closely as the world currencies and markets fall one
by one. Watch in absolute wonder as the demand for oil plunges and it's
price goes thru the roof. Yes, oil stocks will crash with the markets. And
gold? You will never know it's price. It will stop all trading as it slices
thru $10,000+.
Who am I? As I will not be around for long so I am noone. But, follow with
me as all of this takes place in your time!
Date: Sun Oct 19 1997 13:41
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
If you are searching for facts you will find them, but the items you find
will not be true! Did you think that the high powered world of the LBMA
would operate in a fishbowl for all to see? We cannot take what is on the
outside as evidence for what is on the inside. To find the answer work with
inside assumptions and extrapolate them to the outside!
Think now:
Would the world CBs really have kept gold this long if they only valued it
at it's ongoing commodity price? Cannot only the offer of gold have some
value in a deal? Can paper gold that has a commodity face value of, say
$300 be traded for it's true value of many thousands? Indeed, if your
worldly investments ( US stock market? ) are valued in the long run by a
full supply of oil, would not future gold in a Swiss acct. make a good
trade? Do the oil states think our military is there to protect them or
protect oil?
Fact: If the world bids up the price of gold, all deals will be off! It
would be every nation for themselves.Oil would explode in price!
Date: Sat Oct 18 1997 21:04
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
I ask you now: " Is it hard to believe or hard to understand"?
When it comes to money it's usually both.
Know this: "gold transcends human valuations thru time and life".
Take your time on this one! Gold is now caught in a crossfire of world
thought. The traders are viewing it as a commodity and trying to make money
on it's moves using various paper trading vehicles. Their opinion of the
market is flawed because the "real value buyers" would never deal with
these people or let anyone in that circle know they are buying gold as
"money"! The major buying and selling is between CBs, nations, merchant
banks, "the super rich" and the hordes of small buyers in forgotten places.
That is one of the small many reasons wall street hates gold, they are not
part of the real action. Comex is a side show!
Let me fill in the Xs.
First a reprint; "You see the trading medium changed. Oil went from $30++
to $19 + X amount of gold!
Today it costs $19 + XXX amount of gold! "
If you owned a commodity in the ground that had to be sold for paper
currency in order to realize value what would do? Yes, the oil in the
ground may last another 50+ years but will the bonds and currencies of
other governments last that long? One thing you don't do is buy gold
outright, it would cause it to stop trading as a commodity and start
trading as money! You learned that in the late 70s. Nor do you acquire
"real gold money" in any fashion that would allow a comparison of price
trends ( graphs ) ! There must be a way to convert the true wealth of oil
into the outright wealth of gold. We know that oil is a consumed wealth of
a momentary value that is lost in the heat of fire. The stars blink and it
is oil wealth no more!
It has become "the debt of nations " now owed to you. Gold on the other
hand is not a commodity as many assume, as it is truly "the wealth of
nations " meant to last thru the ages! A wise oil nation can strike a deal
with the paper printers and in doing so come out on top. Go back a few
years to the early 90s. Oil is very high, you offer to lower the US$ price
in return for X amount of gold purchasing power. You don't care what the
current commodity price of gold is, your future generations will keep it as
real wealth to replace the oil that is lost. Before the future arrives gold
will be, once again valued as money and can be truly counted on to
appropriately represent all oil wealth!
The Deal:
We ( an oil state ) now value gold in trade far higher than currencies. We
are willing to use gold as a partial payment for the future use of "all
oil" and value it at $1,000 US. ( only a small amount of oil is in this
deal ) And take a very small amount of gold out of circulation each month
using it's present commodity price.
If the world price can be maintained in the $300s it would be a small price
for the west to pay for cheap oil and monetary stability.
The battle is now between CBs trying to keep gold in the $300s and the
"others" buying it up.
In effect the governments are selling gold in any form to "KEEP IT" being
used as `REAL MONEY" in oil deals! Some people know this, that is why they
aren't trading it,, they are buying it. Not all oil producers can take
advantage of this deal as it is done "where noone can see". And, they know
not what has happened for gold does not change in price! But I tell you,
gold has been moved and it's price has changed in terms of oil! For the
monthly amount to be taken off the market has changed from $10 in gold (
valued at $1,000 ) /per barrel to the current $30 in gold /per barrel still
valued at $1,000! Much of this gold was in the form of deals in London to
launder it's movement.
Because of some Asians, these deals are no longer being rolled over as
paper!
What is happening now is far, far larger than the interest of a few traders
or mining companies. They will be stepped on!
more on US$ and T-bills.
Date: Sun Oct 19 1997 23:08
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
Mr. Cole,
The Central Banks could hold gold down for some time, even with massive
buying.
Watch oil! If it rises much and gold isn't sold off then the game is over.
A reprint from an earlier post: The Deal:
We ( an oil state ) now value gold in trade far higher than currencies. We
are willing to use gold as a partial payment for the future use of "all
oil" and value it at $1,000 US. ( only a small amount of oil is in this
deal ) And take a very small amount of gold out of circulation each month
using it's present commodity price.
If the world price can be maintained in the $300s it would be a small price
for the west to pay for
cheap oil and monetary stability. The battle is now between CBs trying to
keep gold in the $300s and the "others" buying it up. In effect the
governments are selling gold in any form to "KEEP IT" being used as `REAL
MONEY" in oil deals! Some people know this, that is why they aren't trading
it,, they are buying it.
Not all oil producers can take advantage of this deal as it is done "where
noone can see". And, they know not what has happened for gold does not
change in price! But I tell you, gold has been moved and it's price has
changed in terms of oil! For the monthly amount to be taken off the market
has changed from $10 in gold ( valued at $1,000 ) /per barrel to the
current $30 in gold /per barrel still valued at $1,000!
Much of this gold was in the form of deals in London to launder it's
movement. Because of some Asians, these deals are no longer being rolled
over as paper!
Date: Sat Oct 25 1997 10:24
ANOTHER (THOUGHTS!) ID#60253:
Why do the Swiss want to sell gold over many years when they could sell the
entire lot in a week? Yes, the worldwide trading volume in gold could take
the whole load and not drop the price below Fridays close! The reason for
the "many long term selling announcements" is to keep the price down over
time. The CBs would have you think that their selling would "crush the
price"! The real effect would be exactly the opposite. The major world
buyers would line up at the door to buy "the last sale of the century! Have
you heard any CBs putting out "Proposals to Sell" for their entire stock of
gold? Of course not, the response to buy would give off the absolute wrong
signal and cause a revaluation of gold .
It is a far better use of a public asset when they use a small anount of it
over time to ensure a reasonable price for OIL! If all gold was sold
quickly, there would be no trading medium for deals! How far do you think
an IOU would go if it didn't have gold in the background worth perhaps a
1,000 times it's current commodity price?
So what good is this information to the small investor? Not much if you run
out and buy gold options, gold stocks, gold futures, etc.! Did you think
the following quotes were good for those assets:
"That is why some "Big Traders" are holding ONLY gold as events unfold."
" One last note: No form of paper wealth will survive the financial crush
once the CBs stop selling!
NOTHING! "
"The market is changing now,,, it will go up but you will not be happy with
the outcome."
"What is happening now is far, far larger than the interest of a few
traders or mining companies. They will be stepped on!"
Gold bullion is being accumulated and cornered on a worldwide scale not
seen before!
UNDERSTAND THIS: The people who are buying do not expect the price to rise
until the CBs slow their selling. They do expect the value of gold to
increase in the future even as the banks sell into a rising market. This
will happen as the sheer volume of trading completely overwhelms the entire
worldwide market! The big buyers fully well expect gold to stop all trading
as the governments enact DRACONIAN MEASURES to deal with a worldwide
currency problem. The public in general will ask for these measures and to
that effect, all paper connected to bullion will become "fair game"!
My projections and -----: The gold market is not the same as it was in the
past, so throw your charts and TA away! Nor will the gold market be the
same in the future as it is today, so don't use paper substitutes! Today,
gold is much more valuable than it has ever been! During your time a
straight forward investment in "bullion only ? will far surpass any other
asset you could hold! |
