Terry, a great question and to be honest I've been scanning my screens for something like this and I haven't found exactly the same thing - look at ANCR, MASX, WSTL, AMTX and on bigger scales IOMG, MU, AOL etc; Here's what I see: I have never seen a bull wedge form after a pinhead (I interpret this to be a bull wedge, up slightly on lowering volume) for more than 8 or 9 days without a gap down (MASX, mid May 96, is the only one I've found)... a stock has a modestly bullish future when there is profit taking immediately after the quick rise. This puts things back in order to an extent.
The one thing that has me hesitant on ZITL is that 9 and 13 DMAs tend to cross pretty quickly at this level and with ZITL this hasn't quite happened yet, though it will if we don't move from this level in 2 trading days. RSI is way up there - not high enough to signal a certain reversal but to make another run up truly miraculous (hey, but this is a story stock, right).
To inject a non TA element, there is still the Nevada "test site" (not for a bomb but for the silver bullet). There could be another explosion here if the hypesters move in and at 44 there would be a quick squeeze - with 1/6 of the stock short. That's 10% of the scenario. The other is a second peak and then a pretty quick decline (say 40%). Then the other 50% is a little gap down and then a step down until a blow off to around 27. possibly lower if the retracement does not hold.
Classically in shorting techniques you would only enter AFTER the blowoff and retracement. I jumped the gun too.
thomas |
