Tippet stories like these will encourage any wild eye bull to take a cash advance and panic buy at the top to get these firesale prices.
my.excite.com
Sign of the times:
cnnfn.com
In the last week I've received a full on frontal attack from cold calling brokers. Anyone else?
Individuals stocks puts might be all right, but index puts might not, hard to say right now. We are making the brokers rich aren't we. Look at all the stock brokers/fund guys that will be in the unemployement lines when this coke loses it's fizz. It's had to become a major employer and driver of the US economy in the last 7 years.
Vitas mentioned the Summation Index and I really like this indicator and think it should supplant the A/D line. I think the A/D line has become antiquated in a market where trillions of dollars can cross borders in less than a blink of an eye.
decisionpoint.com
From this chart you can see the market peaked internally in July 97, made a lower peak right in front of the mini-crash in early October, and now has made a lower peak on March 27, 1998 and has headed down.
I would compare this peak to the July peak, where the market internally started lagging about a month in advance of the Aug peak (that would put our peak on April 27 area). What I would expect is a similar pattern to develop and the summation make a turn back up and make a lower peak before the market starts it's tail spin.
There is some evidence that this will happen, as the McCllelan Oscillator has been in the oversold minus area for much of the last 4 weeks, which is unprecedented in recent market history, sans the August and October sell-offs.
This means there must be a lot of free cash ready to throw into the next estimate beater or the next internet star. A quick blow-up in the next week sending all the available cash to beat Dow 35,000 would bring us right to a nice big pinpoint peak.
decisionpoint.com
Any way Tip, here's the best tip of all. Even if you do find the top and get some puts you might not get rich anyway. This whole derivatives mess may blow up in everyones face and as Galbraith sezs everyone gets gagged by the mania.
All things seen are temporal; but those things which are not seen are eternal.
People are going to realize this truth shortly and find exactly how temporal things are and how important it will be to get our moral, spiritual and ethical house back in order.
Nero is fiddling.
bwdik,
bobby |
