John, I wonder if anyone is suggesting the unimaginable concept that the recent spate of banks merger might be due to weakness not strength? Is it possible that the SEA exposure is larger than expected and "Intenationally" exposed outfits are seeking strong "domestic" outfits? I have not seen such heretic pronouncements in the press yet (but then a year ago when I was "urging" Japan to lower its taxes rather then raise the sales tax, no one was saying anything either, so maybe, I am a tad early VBG).
As for EDC's question about the very near future market performance, I think it still is packing some momentum, the momentum is weaker than a month ago (decrease in daily new highs, and few days in which the tick crossed -1000, but nothing too serious yet), but the main direction is still up I think we will need to see the Nikkei under 15,000 and the Korean market under 410 or so before the SEA malaise returns to these shores. If at all I would short an index here, it would be the SOX, not the major averages, IMHO.
Zeev |
