Some notes from the Toronto Resource & Energy Investment Conference
General comments:
- pretty good crowd in the lecture room by midday
- many diverse opinions on the price of gold, when, how much, which direction
- not as many resource company exhibitors as last year
Sunday, April 19, 1998
7:30 a.m.David Mayerlen/Canadian Speculator David Rutt/Canadian Speculator
- although up at the dawn of crack missed this one
8:00 a.m.Robert McAllister/Investors First
- Robert went over some charts
- much to my delight I came in just as Robert was chatting up Geomaque GEO-vse, their successful $9.2M pre-bought financing, no debt, profitable at current or lower gold prices, last weeks stunning news release of additional resources to 922,000 oz on Honduras property, so in addition ot Mexico have about 1.4 million oz (no wonder there were some hefty block trades going on last week and a bid of 60,000 on Friday at times, someone willing to buy up bigtime)
- BGO should respond to price of gold, various resistant levels, but could easily go back to $6 level
- CRN, needs more good drilling results
- WTC, major discovery, at depth, fairly well valued at current price
- thinks some banks may still have more gold than need, so a concern, but thinks selling by CB's finished for now
8:30 a.m.Chris Bunka/Outsider's Overture
- chat basically around the trends in VSE using RSI indicator and range of variation
- typically VSE rallies in winter falls June /July little rally in September, then falls through tax loss selling season
- uses RSI as global trend indicator, sell when RSI of VSE over 70%, claims kept him out of trouble when Bre-X crashed, buy VSE when RSI down at 35
- thinks VSE and golds may not rally until 1999
9:00 a.m.Paul Sarnoff
- amazing spunk for a fellow just turned 80 I think he said
- likes silver
- thinks Buffet bought as a longer term investment not as a speculator
- still big demand for photography in spite of digital cameras
9:30 a.m.Brian Fagan/The Fagan Report
- thinks todays investment market a function of
1) health of NY, 2)gold price, 3)all metals, 4)new discoveries
- better keep a watch on the NY market, because purchasing power in Asia eroded
- gold backing on Euro, if 30% gold goes to $325
- bullish on VSE, thinks you can buy it because it is such a bottom-fish, look for project rich or cash-rich or both
- will have about 20 cos in June issue
- how to beat market 1) Buy low, get a computer, hunt for stocks using Chartsmart ( plug for you Bob, available at chartsmart.com, 2) Make sure you have an event identified that could make it go up or down, protect yourself, if nothing happens get out
- SVB, thinks some stocks over-priced now
- thinks you should buy Alaska cos, they will drill in June
- 3 specific area play situations, SVB, WTC, ADP
- SVB, hot but watch out, now needs some good drilling results
- WTC, about 20 juniors have joined in area beside WTC, like Teuton/Minvita, many others
- ADP, thinks this is the most important area play because if they come up with the goods, many companies will benefit and there could be a big payback, Ashton has proven they can find pipes, big ones, diamondiferous, yellow stones, need more info on grades, look for results on last 9 pipes, and later the bulk sampling, likes PUG, NCS, TYR who just made a deal with De Beers
10:00 a.m.John Kaiser/Bottom Fishing Report
- supply demand in Asia bad for next year or so, Japan?, US market euphoria worry
- people staying out of resource stocks because the banks etc are doing so well
- juniors may have a problem for longer as several mining cos took steps to cut back
- can go long now on quality resources cos
- need trigger for juniors
- need to restore faith in speculators, cause they made money for all the wrong reasons (eg selling early on Bre-X and feeling bad at first), then lost money for the wrong reasons on other stuff
- need smart money back into juniors, some sign of insiders now reloading
- thinks might see a breakout up in May, continue into summer, spark? Gold? Says luckily Euro needs gold backing to be successful
- some cash rich cos may do some takeovers, watch for this
- what will get the market cooking? ADP, but needs some better grades or good counts out of new 9 pipes, thinks Ashton there for 2 years minimum, looking for bulk sample results later this year, important development with De Beers moving in, someone else hits a pipe and new ball game
- also likes PUG, NCS, TYR
- SVB, thinks needs some good drill results to support current mkt caps, but big program, now likes MGJ and especially NDT pricewise compared to others (thats NDE-vse folks - hint, hint, more money that any other SVB in treasury and trading at less!)
-WTC, some overstaking, may be title disputes
NWT, likes MPV, 3 new pipes, GGL drilling again, WSP needs to sort out their dyke situation under Snap Lake
10:30 a.m.EXHIBIT HALL OPENS, not too many companies
11:30 a.m.David Coffin/Hard Rock Analyst Eric Coffin/Hard Rock Analyst
- big ? Asia and Japan
- thinks big move into gold in next 30 days could add $20-30, but never above $420
- need $7 silver to bring new production on stream
- Pt Pl supply from Russia offside
- copper, some comeback, won't jump much from here
- Zn, more interesting
- diamonds, watch new Canadian producers
- selective market, stick to cos that know how to/can operate in bear market
- reviewed a bunch of cos, contact him if interested
12:00 p.m.PANEL: Currencies, Economies & Investment Strategies
Peter Rehmer, James Turk, David Coffin, Adrian Day (MC)
- Peter thinks we have to be worried about deflation because of debt, safeguard, cash! Oh and some gold
- short term gold may go to $340
- silver sideways
- gold beyond 6 mos could drop to <$200! For a short time, uncertain yet of CB
- uses Elliot waves
- if gov'mts pressed for money, may still cash in gold
Adrian
-look at risk vs reward
- most equity markets overvalued in US, watchout, valuations at extreme levels, market mania prevails
David
- agrees, household debt is at extreme highs, OK as long as employment remains intact
12:30 p.m.EXHIBIT HALL BREAK
1:30 p.m.Ted Carter/Carter's Choice
- can still make money in this market, look for good management, good projects, financing, low stock price
- basically gave a good lecture on how to go about evaluating oil exploration and production companies
- look for price of companies in range of 3-8 times cash flow
- look at growth potential, production chart (going up)
- beware of Duster Brown and Dryhole Smith
- cost of drilling high, but find out quickly, can usually put resource on-line quickly, so can be a quick payback on investment
2:00 p.m.James Dines/The Dines Letter
- very entertaining as usual
- everything is going up don't worry, even gold, greatest bull market in history and its not over, simply because there is no other market for people to put their money into that is doing so well
- thinks earnings will catch up to valuations! (Hows that for optimism)
- warning of top, Dow up 1000 pts in one day, if happens lookout!
- likes a bunch of stocks, especially EN, FN showed lots of graphs of things going back to 1914 and up trends, (gosh I wasn't born then, don't think I would have the patience to wait through some of the 10 year sideways and down cycles of some things he showed)
- thinks Canada shouldn't have sold some gold, explains why currency is down
- get out of real estate
- still bearish on Asia
- likes palladium, can't make smog control devices without it
2:30 p.m.EXHIBIT HALL BREAK
Thats it for me, I got hoarse just listening.
Any others please feel free to add more. |
