Look for PGNS to shoot up after earnings report.
Piper Jaffray PGNS
Peter L. Ginsberg, CFA, 612-342-6456, pginsberg@pjc.com
Heather H. Williamson, 612-342-5521, hwilliamson@pjc.com
Survey Results Strongly Reinforce Optimistic Expectations for TOBI;
PathoGenesis Is Our Top Pick In The Biotech Sector
Rating: Strong Buy, Aggressive (#)
Key Points
- Results of a broad survey of cystic fibrosis (CF) treatment centers
indicate that clinicians intend to rapidly make TOBI a standard in the
treatment of CF.
- A high response rate (30%) enabled us to collect data from CF treatment
centers representing 5,360 patients, or 18% of all CF patients in the U.S.
- On average, centers plan to treat with TOBI 45% of all CF patients
infected with Pseudomonas aeruginosa. This response, relating to intent-to-
treat, is surprisingly high given that TOBI was just launched in January.
- The survey results reinforce our confidence in our worldwide TOBI sales
estimates of $51 million in 1998, $95 million in 1999, and $153 million in
the year 2000.
- We reiterate our Strong Buy rating and our one-year price target of $57
in light of what should be a watershed year for PathoGenesis. |
