Very-well said! Yahoo could screw up or some other misfortune could beset them and the price would be marked down severely with no time to react.
On the contrary, there can be stunning surprised to the upside like two weeks ago.
The weight of evidence is for gathering momentum. I am concerned by the commerce money Yahoo is getting directly from the IPO markets. A friend mentioned this a couple weeks ago, and I see the street.com is running with the notion, too. The land-grab hysteria has caused small companies to stake their claim on Yahoo real estate with money from the public markets, not their own cash flow. If the IPO market dries up that window closes.
On the other hand, there are mature companies with plenty of cash, though they move more slowly, that can shore up that revenue for Yahoo. Yahoo has, ultimately, what all these e-commerce players (big and small) need...32 million pairs of eyeballs that they can't get on their own. Could be a very rough transition, though, because we're talking big incremental dollars, and the IPO market dries up concurrent with general market weakness...a double whammy. That could cause a deep correction like E*Trade has had, caused by exogenous factors. |
