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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: Boca_PETE who wrote (4669)4/20/1998 2:09:00 AM
From: wooden ships  Read Replies (2) of 42834
 
Pete: This day I happened upon some delightful bedtime reading
following. As an aside, at the turn of the last millennium, there
were recorded: mass suicides, public hysteria, and all manner of
behavior associated with persons frightened out of their wits for
little reason except that anno Domini 1000 was closing in upon
them. From a millennium away, we laugh at their folly. Years
hence, who will be the object of folly and ridicule: those who
took the Y2K problem seriously and girded themselves for a
dread aftermath or those who dismissed it as a nuisance blip
on a 1 January radar screen? Who can tell? In any case, here
is more grist for the latter day millennialists' mill:

"TOP TEN STORIES
Millennium bug threatens exchanges

Disruption caused by the year 2000 on the global foreign
exchange market could be catastrophic

Disruption caused by the year 2000 on the global foreign exchange
market could be catastrophic and cost many millions of dollars a day,
according to services house CSC, writes Dan Sabbagh.

A draft analysis this week states the millennium bug could cause a
'systemic impact' on the lines of the oil price shock of 1973 - due
to the impact on interbank settlement systems.

CSC stated that an outright failure by a clearing house - such as
Britain's CHAPS - would amount to $761 million a day. A failure
by a major bank would cost $495 million a day and a failure by a
group of small banks would come to a total of $281 million a day.

CSC's research predicts that such failures are a real threat. 'Of
particular concern is the level of progress among institutions and
clearing houses in Asia.'

In Singapore 'nearly one-half' of financial institutions have not begun
to deal with the millennium bug, the report said.

Even without a spectacular crash, the impact is expected to be costly.
Settlement failure rates could jump from the current 1-5%, upping
costs incurred in managing the ensuing bottlenecks to between $100
million to $300 million a day.

CSC based its research on interviews with 90 global representatives
of banks, clearing houses and regulators. Highlights from the research
will be made available on CSC's Web site - uk.csc.com -
shortly.

02 April 1998"
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