There is no evidence that the CDRD system won't work.
As with most sat technologies (like Globalstar and Iridium and DirecTV) they are based on a use of a new technology combined with a new business plan. DirecTV has worked quite well, and there were people saying that it was technically impossible right up until the point where they started recieving the signal. Same thing for I* and G*.
Given the nature of this business, the large sums at risk and the relative ease with which LORAL or CDRD can test their methods, frequencies and products, I think it is safe to say the product will work. It may require local repeaters to *improve* quality in the worst areas... but remember, those worst areas represent a tiny fraction of the coverage area. (Probably less than 1/10 of 1%-- how much of the US is "core urban downtown"? I cannot think of anywhere in Seattle or San Francisco where this would be a problem, assuming they are using spread spectrum broadcasting, which I think they are.)
So, there is the question of how many repeaters and at what cost and how many subscribers they will get and whether the numbers add up, but that is a business question. From a technical viewpoint, assuming the launches go ok, I think its safe to say that service will work as advertised when it goes online. (But due to launch and other issues, the service start date may change, another risk.)
Dragonfly |
