Paul, ***Off-topic***
Re: the market continuing its upward move.
The only reason I can dream up for the market to continue its manic course is based on the theory described in the book "The Great Boom Ahead". I dislike (alot) books with titles like that one, as much as I dislike titles like "the great depression ahead", because they seem too extreme.
I haven't had much luck trudging through this book. It's pretty awful reading, IMHO. And I distrust the theory big-time.
The reason I tend to distrust this theory is that it seems to be the perfect excuse for buying into the argument of "it's different this time" with PEs and Price/Book, Price/Sales valuations being so much higher than is normal. I have this natural problem with believing that it's different this time. It NEVER has been different. And in the midst of times that folks were trying to justify high valuations, they, in hindsight, should have been selling stocks instead of buying excuses.
I don't know the answer, but I just want to look hard for evidence of which to believe. The boomer argument may be right, and if it is, I guess PEs and all the valuations will go sky-high(er).
It's true that AMAT and the semi-equip group are not as pricey as the overall market using certain valuation measures, but they are much higher than where they've troughed in prior downturns. I continue to believe that no one knows how long this downturn will persist.
Remember when I was thinking of selling all my tech stocks and buying PFE. Shoulda... Next time I have a great idea, I hope to recognize it -g-.
My 2 cents,
Regards,
Teri |
