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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go?
PFE 25.29-1.6%3:59 PM EST
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To: The Perfect Hedge who wrote (1277)4/20/1998 12:27:00 PM
From: AARON DIDICH  Read Replies (2) of 9523
 
Beeblebrox:

I was curious at your comment on $270 per prescription which I am going to say you derived by multiplying 30 days supply by $9/pill charge which may be a little high or low depending on your market.
If this is your logic, you may want to consider that most scripts will be written for much smaller amounts: 1. why put up all that money up front when you can get a refill(doc would just need to check the box) and 2.I don't think these patients will be quitting their jobs to stay home to play with their new toy for very long; ie. they will go back to average 2-3 acts a week(though this med could cause us to "raise the bar" on that average).

Second point, scripts could be written near that fill rate if the patient has a co-pay of say $3-5 per script and he pressures the doc to just give him one big script to save a few bucks. I think insurance approval may become an issue if this drug is too successful so they may limit script size and then of course, the underground market for the drug may cause people to step back on this also.

Third point, these numbers released deal with insurance covered scripts I believe, so the real number could actually be many times larger for those people who aren't members of a plan! Now that's good news.

Aaron
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