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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)

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To: FJB who wrote (16750)	4/20/1998 5:24:00 PM
From: David Harker	Read Replies (3) of 25960

Komatsu - can any industry experts/insiders assess the impacts of this to CYMI? What % of Nikon & Canon steppers (out of their grand total) are shipped to Japanese customers - obviously half of those will not be CYMI lasers, so what actual # of lasers is that? ASMLF 'plans to ship' some Komatsu lasers, does anyone know how many? Still, it seems CYMI has most of the market in 1999 (Komatsu's fiscal 1999 year), since: "Komatsu hopes for sales of Y5 billion in year ending March 1999" in a 1999 total market of somewhere between Y25 billion (fiscal 1997 market size) and Y50 billion (fiscal 2000 market size). If CYMI gets 80% of fiscal 1999 market share of Y40 billion ('Y40 billion' is my rough est. for 1999, based on Y25B -> Y50B from fiscal 1997 -> 2000) then that leaves 20% for komatsu & friends, which is Y8B, allowing them to 'over-exceed' their goal of Y5B, still giving most of the market to CYMI... Any other opinions on this announcement?

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