To all,
To put this into the same context that the Goldman Sachs analyst did the other day for me just before the FDA meeting was about to begin, he said : " THIS IS ABOUT TRUTH, NOT VACCINES.
Here are my opinions of the Abelson Article that appeared in Barrons this weekend, 11/4/96 , paragraph by paragraph, all thirteen of them. Have the article for ready reference . I am selecting what I call key statements used by Abelson to create and build emotion to get you to act as he wants you to. When you are thru reading his article if he has been successful you will have lost all sense of reason and logic and indeed will be controlled by "FEAR". In this case fear of loosing alot of money. And if you follow thru and sell he will have accomplished his evil mission, IMHO..
First I must remind you that Abelson and Sturza are not under any regulation that controls what they say nor am I.. We cannot be held accountable. Your broker, trust officer, fund manager,etc. and any company officer of NVX can be held fully responsible.
Second most of my information comes first hand, I was at the FDA meeting on Tuesday 10/29/96. My information concerning the FDA meeting has been supplimented with information from what NVX has reported, and what the analyst who follow the stock are reporting. I did chat with quite a few people during breaks and after the meeting who helped me form my opinions.
Para 1. AA( Alan Abelson) said "The company, which has been very proficient at producing red ink but a little light in coming up with a commercial product .........."
My Comment: NVX is a development stage drug company with some 15 or more products at various stages of development and multi major alliances with other major drug organizations. The statement is imbecilic, malicious, irresponsible and manipulative in intent. IMO.
2.AA Said:" NVX started out as a sperm bank......",
My Comments , So what , Berkshire Hathaway started out as a textile company.
In the same paragraph AA said: Indeed the most recent tumble in its stock -1 3/4 points friday, to 20- was caused by the FDA's refusal to give the drug an all-clear."
My Comment: Not so fast, This stock had several days to fall. Sturza had that news out right away. I am strongly of the opinion that the majority of fridays fall just could be attributed to a leak of this very article coming out on saturday. I write this statement off as a cover-up. The FDA refusal statement is a fantasy.
3.AA Said: " Right from the beginning, we should mention, the company's major shareholders have been Ivax and a Canadian company....."
My comments: Abelson has made wrong calls in the past on KPH, and IVX, both started by Dr. Phil Frost, Chairmen of NVX Board . KPH was bought out by Schering Plough making a fool of Abelson if you held long, and IVX we all know has been the fastest and most successful new company in the generic drug business, as to Biochem, the canadian firm has gone from $2 to $50. Nothing to snicker at. This I am assuming is just a little disclosure of the man; Abelson apparently just can't let defeat go , that is my wild guess.
4.AA said " NVX sported a market cap of some $600 million ........"
My comments: This is just an irresponsible statement which indicates to me just how little he knows about how to value a company and in this case must know nothing about the company much less what the future potential is for NVX.
NVX's pipeline of products are addressing a multi billion dollar market over the next 5 or so years IMO. DTaP is just the start.Talk to Abbott for more on this.
AA said: " AND THE COMPANY, WE NOTED, HAS NONE OF THE DOMESTIC MARKET AND......"
My comment: Wow, Now that is a really incredible piece of information.
But I bring it up because it illustrates my point about the authors intentions. CREATE FEAR, NO sales IN US. DA!!!!!
5.This is about waiting for FDA approval and NVX is no different than any other drug company when it comes to predicting just when such an event will happen but AA is apparently not aware of that. So here he is really saying that you can't trust NVX management. Instills a little more FEAR, right?.
6.AA said: ....." an FDA advisory panel unanimously rejected North American's application to....................."
The panel said that the company failed to show the vaccine was effective........ requested more data"
My comments: First: Abelson should read in the very same issue of Barrons, page MW8 in which it is stated that :"FDA ADVISORS FOUND THE DIPHTHERIA-TETANUS-whooping cough vaccines of both NVX and rival American Home Products to be SAFE AND EFFECTIVE ".
Second:Dr.KAREN MIDTHUN, FDA REVIEWER WHO MODERATED THE FDA PORTION OF THE MEETING said at least once that NVX's DTaP vaccine showed "no serious side effects" and that the vaccine was effective and a better vaccine.
A few panel members did say "I wish we had more data" but that was for the fifth shot and that means a kid has to have been in the program for five years, so as time goes on more data will become available, the panel recognized the problem of coming up with more data and moved on. The company said that the FDA will certainly have the data before we start administering the fifth shot in the US.It is coming in all the time.
7. AA said " Evan Sturza's whose name has popped up in these columns before.."
My comments: They are buddies , so that is no surpise, but I guess it is attempt on Abelsons part to add credibility to the name, Sturza,
If Sturza attended the meeting he went incognito,because his name wasn't on the Guest Register for his faithful followers to see.
8,9,10, &11 Now it is Abelson saying what Sturza said: Sturza is upset with the companies release, etc.
My comments: I buy what the President of NVX, Sharon Mates said in her release. I can also tell you NVX management is very cautious of what they release and in the past have been critized for being to cautious. Well relative to the recent SKB release Sharon was cautious once again.IMHO.
12. AA said: according to Evan, an FDA statistician" presented data which confirmed" that the companies vaccine is only "71% effective" and no safer than competing versions". he further quotes Sturza to say " the FDA disclosed several cases of severe adverse effects, including seizures, high fevers and hypotonic/hyporesponsive episodes" following vaccination with NVX's vaccine."
My comments: "71% effective";Sturza is referring to comments that Dr. Thomas Fleming made I assume. That number has been beat up by Sturza now for at least a year. NVX released it when they released their results of the
Swedish trial. What Sturza does not want the average Joe public to know is that the FDA fully recognizes the number for what it is and are quite impressed. NVX trial was done under much tighter controls than any of the others, the only one under epidemic conditions, etc..
Dr Karen Midthun, FDA reviewer in her presentation referred to it as "ideal conditions" and she emphasized that none of the studies are comparable. When adjustments are made for the difference in trial conditions the number is around 80% efficacy. When it comes to FDA labeling the truth will be out on this one and that has to scare the hell out of Sturza cause his whole effort has been to get the layman, to see apples and oranges as apples.
The FDA did in displaying the data from some 17 or 18 trials put up a slide that did show some numbers for severe side effects and stated that in further investigation it was determined that none was attributed to the administering of NVX'as vaccine . Here I will add that I called the company the other day and was told that they had administered 90,000 more does to children in Sweden and not a single severe side affect was reported. Again I feel just about 100% positive that there FDA approved label will say "0 SEVERE SIDE EFFECTS" To put this into perspective all of the other competitors have reported "severe side effects"
13&14 Just Sturza projecting wishful thinking on the outcome and not worth a comment. NVX and Abbott have an excellent future ahead them in the fast growing pediatric vaccine business.
His SELL recommendation and his spearheading this media blitz campaign to drive the stock down is to save him and others from personal disaster I would assume.( I refer to the enormous short position, 3.5million share, and the present lack of stock to allow them to even begin to cover) He is certainly smart enough to know that many of his statements are not what an intelligent knowledgeble individual in his field would make. He is just plain out to change our perceptions to support his own selfish interest IMHO.
I solicit all comments. I am here because I feel the company and the shareholders of NVX are getting a raw deal from the media and I am doing what I can to balance things up and let TRUTH prevail. It is indeed an attitude I would like to see the media emphazise more often.
What I have just written will be sent to everyone and anyoe I can get it to in the media over the next 24 hours. I hope any who read it will help , make a copy, fax it , e-mail it , let's get the word out and get our fair shake. Thanks Don Stone |
