Ascend Communications-News Only!!! (ASND) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications-News Only!!! (ASND)

ASND 197.59

-0.8%

Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: Dennis R. Duke who wrote (1389)	4/20/1998 7:08:00 PM
From: Dennis R. Duke	Read Replies (1) of 1629

Well, we can't seem to get ASND to talk about wins, but Cowen did: From their report today: Key Points: 1. ASND Wins 125 City Frame Relay And ATM Switch Deployment With Qwest For Frame Relay And ATM Services. 2. We Estimate The Deal Value At $45MM To $50MM. 3. Qwest Deal Is Incremental To Recent LCI Deal For Core Switches. 4. Maintain Buy Rating And $45 Target Price. Estimates Unchanged. Thesis/Valuation: ASND is a dominant player in the Internet access concentrator market and it has a strong position in the ATM switch and frame relay markets. The company will be one of the most significant infrastructure suppliers for the explosion in spending on next generation carrier voice and data networks. While the access concentrator and frame relay switch markets appear poised to grow 10 to 20% annually, the ATM switch market is exploding and ASND's CBX500 and GX550 products are achieving significant deployments in carrier backbones. Recently, momentum is strong at ASND with the award of several large multi-year deals. We rate ASND shares a Buy-2, with a $45 Target Price, based on 30x C99 EPS of $1.50. We believe our estimates are conservative. [I am not sure that this paragraph changed since last report?] ASND Wins Frame Relay And ATM Switch Deployment At Qwest. Win Additive To LCI Deal. Qwest announced today that it intends to deploy ASND frame relay (BSTDX 9000) and ATM switches (CBX500 and GX550) for frame relay and ATM services in its 125 city network. The company will also use Navis management to offer service level agreements. We believe that these will deploy over the next several quarters and that the total value of the deal is between $45MM To $50MM. Qwest is in the process of buying LCI. We believe that the deal announced today with Qwest is incremental to the LCI deal announced last week. Buy Rating And $45 Target Price Retained. Estimates Unchanged. Because of the strong momentum in the core switching business as well as the likelihood that the access concentrator business will up Q/Q, we view our estimates as conservative. [That is music to my ears.] ------- I like it, Dennis

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