Hi Mike, re Y2K "body shop" stocks (i.e. KEA, CHRZ, IMRS, and the like) I was wondering what your thoughts might be on the proper timing to short or buy puts on them.
In particular, as a computer consultant on the East Coast I've noticed that rates for mainframe skills (COBOL) have soared vis-a-vis PC languages such as C, Visual Basic, etc. A year ago, I was making $20 an hour more than the average COBOL programmer, now I making 10-15 less, and my wages have gone up! Based I calculated that Computer Horizons, for example had about 80% of its growth come from Y2K contracts, and that these contracts were also higher margin.
Also, I was wondering what you think about my theory that ERP stocks are currently Y2K stocks in disguise. I've seen a least one instance where the estimate to fix a COBOL based system was almost as much as the up front cost of a Peoplesoft system, so I suspect that a good part of the growth in JDEC, PSFT, BAANF et al is due to Y2K "sticker shock".
regards,
spiny |
