Ward:
I guess we are discussing the merits of TA for penny stocks and not PYT as such. So here is my comments you requested:
I must be misreading the first part of your reponse, i.e,
> Not enough action? Minimum 1 mill/day?
> A hasty conclusion considering the number of non-volume-based
> indicators available to TA players (which you'll find more
> of in Canada because of the lack of volume relative to US
> markets).
I wrote $ (dollar sign - the part you missed)1 million/day. It means, as you as a technician sure know, volume times price. In other words $1 mil/day means 1 million of $1 shares per day or 250K of $4 (PYT) shares per day. Your note about the non-volume-based indicators does not really make any point. All I'm saying you need a real crowd to meaningfully apply TA. But I'd be truly interested to know what indicators you were able to successfully apply to PYT. Too bad I don't live in Edmonton any more.
The other part
> ... indicators available to TA players (which you'll find more
> of in Canada because of the lack of volume relative to US
> markets).
Where did you get this impression? The only published reference to this regard I know of is the exact and overwhelming opposite. My source is Investors Digest and articles by Roman Franko (editor of TA of Canadian Stocks). I am sure I can find the exact references. Where are yours? I suggest it is YOU who is making hasty statements.
> My friend...welcome to the world of resistance. You have given
> a nice description of how difficult it will be for PYT to move
> above $5 again. To put it another way, imagine how many of those
> who bought around $5 will be willing to dump PYT at breakeven
> prices, or even a bit lower for a small loss. Observe the trading
> and see how many sellers come out of the bushes if PYT ever gets
> near $5 again. It will take significant volume to break $5 again,
> regardless of the news PYT may put out. I really encourage you to
> look at PYT's trading in 1996 for a preview.
I will not argue on the first part. It is definitely a possible scenario. I tend to think otherwise, since there is not that many angles left to promote this stock, i.e., the next development, which will move the price significantly, has to be either production- or order- related and that will upgrade PYT from the junior rank into a REAL company. At that point market capitalization closer to 100mil should be achievable as it would make PYT institution-worthy. I do not know when this may happen but TA will not know/indicate it either.
Your encouragement to look at 1996. Well, my friend (sorry, I could not resist), are you saying that the company affairs were comparable? At that time it was a promotion in combination with peaking of VSE market. There is hundreds of VSE stocks with similar pattern (often never lived up to since)as VSE was really going at that time. That is until the summer when the market turned south - big time.
I missed the 1997 FDA spike, because I was on a two week vacation - that is how long it lasted and you literally had hours to get on the bandwagon. Apply TA to that. Perhaps you are looking at the patterns and not the indicators (somebody was posting about head&shoulder) - if you have spikes, you, almost as a rule, have some kind of head&shoulders. Pennants and similar features, it is my understanding, are good for stocks in a trading range (as oppose to trending range). What escapes me is how one could apply patterns on an essentially flat line with little undulation.
As a conclusion, I like TA, I just do not think it is appropriate here. I would appreciate, if you could elaborate on your techniques. There is a new SI forum on TA on penny stocks.
Cheers,
Peter |
