Tulvio, good questions - you're on the right track asking about the applications and what is the market (with what technical requirements).
First, there really isn't a carbon fiber trade journal, just a few private individuals who collect market data and publish monthly reports. If you are interested (and want to pay around $2500/yr send me a private e-mail and I'll provide some details.
Second, infrastructure strengthening is a big area of talk, probably only second to NGV (natural gas vehicle) tanks as potential growth markets for carbon fiber. Zoltek (and Akzo) are best positioned for the infrastructure if the applications ever happen. California was a big proponent of carbon fiber as a lower cost alternative for "life cycle" costs. Problem is twofold - you really have to wait 25 years to prove the lifecycle cost arguement and the steel guys have all lowered their costs to significantly below composites. Two companies play in this area, XXSYS Technologies (XSYS on Nasdac) and Hexcel/Fife a private company 50% owned by Hexcel (HXL on NYSE - also a major carbon fiber supplier and a partner with XXSYS on some NIST funding). For more info (actually hype) goto www.xxsys.com for details on some current applications. IMO infrastructure is going to be a very slow market to develop and will take more than 10 years before we see widespread use of composites. One reason, name me one politician who will tell his local community that they should pay even 2-3X the cost of steel in order to maybe not have to replace the bridge (or whatever structure) in 50 years. The life cycle arguement just won't fly except for some technology showcases. My two cents on infrastructure.
Third, carbon fiber suppliers ranked by supply of aerospace product as follows:
Hexcel
Toray
Amoco
Toho
Note that the aerospace market offers substantially higher margins than the commercial market Zoltek is positioned for. All of the above companies can leverage their high margin business to enter low tech applications. In fact, the collapse of the aerospace market forced the above companies to create the market Zoltek plays in today.
Fourth, this idea that Zoltek has some special proprietary process which allow them to produce lower cost carbon fiber is hype (IMO). Every carbon fiber company uses their own proprietary process. There is no standard process. In the industry, those who have their own precursor capability have a cost advantage. Those who have a large merchant acrylic business have a greater advantage. See list below.
Company / Own Precursor / Acrylic Supplier
Toray yes yes
Toho yes yes
Hexcel yes no
Amoco yes no
Mitsubishi yes yes
Akzo no no
Zoltek today no yes
someday? yes yes
When Zoltek can actual convert their own precursor into fiber, they should be the lowest cost large tow supplier. This advantage will be short lived if Toray, Toho or Mitsubishi decide to make large tow. However, they have to ship precursor from Hungary and pay an 8% duty on the precursor to import into the US. That's why they should look to building carbon fiber in Hungary. Only problem is that the carbon fiber market is in the US and they would still have to ship the product to the US.
Fifth, if Zoltek's new plant is in St. Louis then is it truly a new plant or just an expansion of their old plant. I would ask questions about their environmental permitting for their new lines. Carbonization puts some nasty stuff into the air VOCs and Zoltek is the only carbon fiber company to have a plant in a major city. I would be surprised if they could actually permit a large plant in St. Louis.
Hope this answers some of your questions.
Good luck.
Flyguy. |
