Hi Issac,
First, you should understand that I know nothing about the drug industry and how they do business. I got into the stock when it was more a momentum stock. I think the downgrade is the result of a desire to hook this company back up with a major player. I believe there's nervousness regarding the time frames on some of the other drugs and what is appearing to be a leveling off of Viracept market share. Again, I don't understand the biotech market well, but it seems to me that the investment community is not sold on the probability of Agouron bringing other popular drugs to the market. The Doug Lind comments were encouraging to me though, seems he believes in the possibilities, but wants to see the reassurance of a major player with muscle, experience, and deep pockets.
As far as TA, I glance at charts, but am not heavy into TA. Bill Kirn is more the TA man. I go by gut feel which is largely based on FA and to a lesser degree, my impression of sentiment. I am a shorter term investor, don't like to be in anything too long in this market. I believe the stock will break 40 if Agouron can increase Viracept market share (stock seems heavily influenced by scrip data at this point in time), announcement of a collaboration, or strong data suggesting something in their pipeline will be a blockbuster. If it were to break 40, it may experience a forceful move upwards, even if temporary, as the shorts get squeezed. The thought of a possible acquisition as suggested in the PW report is a little scary. A move of this nature could bury the stock...could always be a positive also I guess, depending on the specifics. PW has taken a brave position regarding their $65-$70 12 month price target, but I don't have much of a feel for Ms Wangs experience or credibility. I do know that she's maintained this 12 month target for over a year now, and we know what's happened to the stock. I'm not impressed with PW picks in general, they seem to have a knack for picking stocks that get halved (AGPH aside).
Would be interested in your thoughts on the pipeline. I have some other information pertaining to monthly scrip comparisons I'll try and post tonight.
regards,
sf |
