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Biotech / Medical : Zonagen (zona) - good buy?

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To: Linda Kaplan who wrote (3510)4/21/1998 2:04:00 PM
From: C. K. Humphries  Read Replies (1) of 7041
 
Linda, This ZONA stock is nothing but a story stock, with a long way to go before any Vasomax pills get sold. It also proves that the stock market often defies logic. The Fortune article was right on the money. Vasomax is hype. The hype is in the process of squeezing the shorts (like me) to death!

As to the law suit, what is happening now with the stock price doesn't matter unless the stock goes back up to the 40s. If it does, that would only cover those with the paper losses. Those that sold the stock as it collapsed have lost their money. Why did they lose it? ..because the stock was overinflated due to false statements made by Podolski et al. Podolski did claim that he had a patent back in June. If that was true, then why did Zonagen need another patent? It was not true-nothing in the Zorgniotti patent implied a regular pill. That misinformation had the impact of driving the stock up. The law suit also revealed that insiders sold a large block of stock during that time. When the patent was revealed to be untrue, the stock collapsed. I think anyone losing money as a result will eventually be paid by Zonagen. If you make a false statement to inflate the stock price, then take profit as a result, that is fraud pure and simple. Who cares if later your falsehood becomes true. The fraud is already a done deal.

Why didn't Podolski ever defend himself against those allegations? I would guess that since they were true, it was better not to say anything and wait for the patent. This management has major credibility problems.

A couple of thoughts: Let's assume that 35% are helped by Vasomax. Isn't that 35% based on the population that had all of those with serious side effects excluded. That could knock that 35% down to 20%-25% or lower. (If I'm wrong here, let me know.)

On efficacy, if the 35% is true, we know that both Viagra and Vasomax are vasodilators although their mode of action is different. If Viagra is working through its vasodilating properties, why would those not helped by Viagra be helped by Vasomax? Isn't it likely that Viagra failures would also be Vasomax failures? Since phentolamine is a generic drug currently available, why wait for approval to find out. If Viagra doesn't work for you, all you have to do is grind up the generic tablet to get the equivalent of Vasomax. It is just phentolamine and a superdisintegrant. If you grind up the tablet it's the same thing. One thing that about phentolamine though, it is a potent vasodilator that effects the whole vascular system. My understanding is that safety is more of an an issue with Vasomax than with Viagra. If Viagra has some major Achilles' heel the longs will well profit in the short run.

On this thread, it has gotten pretty vicious lately. If the longs are making money right now, I'm happy for them. As to the shorts, our day will come again. On this roller coaster everybody can make money. You don't even have to be right! Kent

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