Kerry, The Dataquest analyst "guesses" about when we last had single digit dollar growth in pcs??????? Uh, he can't look that up somewhere. Well, if you run into the guy, tell him it was 8% in 1991, which isn't the 1980s, but close enough for a 12 year old analyst. <G> BTW, pc stocks didn't do very well that year. They sure weren't hitting new highs on eps that were down 13%, as with IBM today.
I think DQ may have the unit number a little high. My guess is that pc unit sales increase 13% this year, as sales slow with Y2K coming closer at the end of the year. Also, I think dollars may be flat. Some are calling for negative dollars, at which point the peasants attack Michael Dell with pitchforks.
One thing about the Fools, they are properly named. MSFT loves to lowball analysts and then do their "aw, shuckes, I guess we're even better than we thought," Will Rogers rope-a-dope routine. The fact is if eps are up 20% or even 30%, they still aren't up enough to justify a pe ratio of 62. And while the pe ratio is heading north, this eps growth rate is definitely headed south. Perhaps not as quickly or as far as I would prefer, but there is no doubt at all about direction. MB
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