To all,
I talked with Susan @ IR. Here's the key points (of which I assume most of you know):
1. Minor revenues coming from Europe, but not really enough to speak of. They have a marketing arm over there, but the reality is without FDA approval, most countries are hesitant to adopt the procedure.
2. One of only companies going after the hyperopic (sp?) market. Unfortunately, VISX is as well with their currently approved process.
As of now, they are only approved for myopic patients, but because their machine is already FDA approved, they could get FDA approval much sooner than SNRS. More on this later.
3. FDA approval will most likely come sometime in 2000. Also, they are only seeking out the hyperopic market, except in cases where myopia has been overcorrected.
4. Their only debt (if you want to call it that) is $9.35 MM of convertible 12% (convertable @3). They expect they have enough cash to last through the marketing of the product.
5. I asked about marketing strategies, doctor or patient or both. She said they would market to doctors, but as far as patient type marketing, she didn't want to comment.
This is pretty much the gist of the conversation. I think the long term looks good for this company. I am concerned about the "first to market" advantage VISX could have. I believe their laser cost about $500,000 a pop, which is no chump change. If VISX is successful penetrating the market before SNRS can compete, it would make becoming a market leader that much tougher. I don't know how willing doctors would be to replace that machine a year later, especially if the procedure works. That is not to say it isn't possible, but it definitely is something to think about. I imagine they would have to spend considerably more on marketing than they anticipate.
As far as the stock price is concerned, I think it will probably retreat to 8 or below at some point. Two years will pass before FDA approval. That is a long time for a stock to stay strong when it doesn't even have a product to market. However, for the patient investor content to keep this socked away, in 3 or 4 years from now, there will be a lot of money in that sock. But then again, what the heck do I know? It could go to the moon and never look back.
Time will tell,
Colby |
