AMERICAN BIOMED, Minimally Invasive Technology (ABMI) Message Board

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Microcap & Penny Stocks : AMERICAN BIOMED, Minimally Invasive Technology (ABMI)

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To: Ray Tarke who wrote (522)	4/21/1998 8:58:00 PM
From: Jeffrey L. Henken	Read Replies (2) of 2887

Ray when this question first came up over on the Yahoo thread I thought the guy who was asking had lost his marbles: messages.yahoo.com@m2.yahoo.com He had it all figured out how ABMI might eventually bring in $1.4 billion a year. I was thinking man this guy is really nice but way out there with his reasoning. So I tried to give him a little gentle guidance and lower his expectations by discussing the future based on my expectations for next year alone. Here is my answer: When American BioMed says they are after 10% of the US market I take that to mean they would like to capture 10% market share of the catheter market for peripheral uses. To date the company has had limited success in achieving their expectations. Even if they do unfortunately we would see no where near the kinds of numbers that you are hoping for in you calculations. Why is that you might ask? Well your numbers are based on hospital costs paid by Blue Shield/Blue Cross and not the actual cost of a catheter to the distributor or hospital who buys it from American BioMed. Sadly despite the fact that the market is indeed huge and growing rapidly we will probably never see billions of dollars in revenues as ABMI shareholders. Many of the areas that American BioMed will eventually deliver competitive products are years away from true profits. So lets take a look at what is really going on based on last years numbers and some reasonable projections for this next year. Last year Cathlab produced 30,000 catheters and probably sold more out of their available inventory. But for the sake of our purposes lets say they did not sell anymore than the 30,000 and the actual amount of money paid to American BioMed per Catheter is around $22 on average. Using those numbers it's easy to figure where $660,000 in revenues came from last year. Now lets say all the new distributors start to kick in in the future and really deliver an increase in market share. How much more business will this mean to American BioMed? It's impossible to say but we certainly can dream. In one of my earliest conversations with Steve Rash we talked about Stepic Medical not signing to distribute a company's products if they could not do as much as $2 million in business of their product alone. So how much mark up does one of American BioMed's distributors take on the catheters they sell? Beats me but it cannot be a huge one can it? So lets say the mark up was as high as a 50% and Stepic and the other new distributors really do have some real success selling the company's new catheter line in order to get close to their $2 million a year expectations. Well I don't think it's unreasonable to hope that one distributor could bring in as much revenue as the company booked all of last year. Will that happen? I doubt it, but it really doesn't matter. American BioMed has 11 new North American Distributors signed in the last twelve months. We hope that they will have great success selling what appears to be a highly competitive catheter line with so many distinct advantages over the latex competition. You see what I am getting at don't you? These distributors earn nothing if they don't sell these products. If only one distributor has great success they might potentially sell enough product for that one distributor to exceed the overall sales American BioMed booked last year. We have 11 chances for that to happen in North America alone. But lets not forget one thing. ISO 9001 certification will be bringing in more business. The Polamedco contract alone could result in American Biomed producing 300,000 nasopharyngeal airway products in one calender year. Even if these only brought in $2 per device we would see American BioMed book an additional $600,000 in revenues. That contract alone would nearly match the company's revenue total from last year! ISO 9001, and CE Mark approval which I expect to come soon, will add greatly to the company's bottom line. American BioMed may not earn any Billion Dollars in revenues but the revenues will grow in 1998 and in 1999 true profitability is a real probability. There is so much more to say but it is all speculation on the company's potential with other products, the possibility of a strategic partnership or a take over of the company. One thing is for sure and that is that with all the volume in the stock lately the buying is from informed investors! Ok so that was last night. Today I contacted Steve Rash CEO of American BioMed and asked him about his expectations for the future with some of the products in R&D. Guess what? That guy wasn't crazy! American BioMed could be capable of generating a billion dollars in revenues someday. How do I figure that? Well just how big are some of the markets American Biomed will eventually participate in? Projections for future markets should include the atherectomy market, the stent market, the market for balloon catheters and the guidewire microfilter. The guidewire microfilter market size can be figured at very conservatively at $500 million a year. The atherectomy market, including coronary applications is is also over $500 million. That's a Market of over a billion dollars a year that American BioMed could be participating in at some point in the future with the OmniCath and the Guidewire Microfilter alone. As far as I know no one else is working on a product like the Guidewire Microfilter. The OmniCath is in phase II testing. We already know the stent market is growing like gangbusters. So all we need for American BioMed to start pulling in the big bucks is just a little time, money, and perhaps just a bit of luck. The stock is forming that new higher base. Good news will be coming soon. I can just feel it in the spring time wind. Anyone out there looking for a hot stock tip or just sitting on the fence here with this stock ? Invest in ABMI! This may be the best stock tip you get this year if you act soon because in my opinion this stock is heading higher soon! GO ABMI! Regards, Jeff

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