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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 267.87

-0.6%

Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (18896)	4/21/1998 9:08:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Teri and threaders,>The reason I tend to distrust this theory is that it seems to be the perfect excuse for buying into the argument of "it's different this time" with PEs and Price/Book, Price/Sales valuations being so much higher than is normal. I have this natural problem with believing that it's different this time. It NEVER has been different. And in the midst of times that folks were trying to justify high valuations, they, in hindsight, should have been selling stocks instead of buying excuses. I don't know the answer, but I just want to look hard for evidence of which to believe. The boomer argument may be right, and if it is, I guess PEs and all the valuations will go sky-high(er). It's true that AMAT and the semi-equip group are not as pricey as the overall market using certain valuation measures, but they are much higher than where they've troughed in prior downturns. I continue to believe that no one knows how long this downturn will persist.< Having tried to predict the SEMI's in the '96 price lows and '97 high which appeared not to follow any sense as far as EPS I was lucky to have held on through the $108 high and 2x1 split. Now I am trying to anticipate how many price cycles we can expect from AMAT through 2006 and what new technology (Moore's Law) we can expect in the SEMI sector after the 300 (12") wafer. What new technology will drive the next cycle-the 16" wafer? Anyone have knowledge what will drive the new technology and next cycles to additional high through 2006 and beyond. I try to think ahead. This additional knowledge will enable those of us who believe in the additional future gains of AMAT in the long run. Please respond. PS AMAT today moved upward one $1.00 forwarding another DW "X" $38. Now, we are only $2.00 (2 "x"s away from breaking the double top of $39.00. Paul V.

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