Interesting bit of economic news.
Subj: University of San Diego Leading Indications Up In February
Date: 98-04-21 15:18:49 EDT
University of San Diego Leading Indications Up In February
SAN DIEGO, April 21 /PRNewswire/ -- The University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.4 percent in February. The move was led by a strong performance by initial claims for unemployment insurance. Also lending support were solid gains by consumer confidence, help wanted advertising, and the outlook for the national economy. Local stock prices were virtually unchanged, although with a slight positive bias, while building permits continued to pull back from their recent high levels.
February's increase was another solid performance by the USD Index. Good gains were registered by consumer confidence and the outlook for the national economy. The latter component turned in its best performance since June 1996. The strength in the labor market continues to be impressive. Initial claims for unemployment insurance continue to drop (a positive for the Index) and help wanted advertising continues to rise. The result is an unemployment rate that remains under 4%. In fact, there is some concern that the labor market is too strong. While a tight labor market is beneficial to workers, local employers are becoming concerned about a shortage of workers and higher labor costs.
While most of the indicators are positive, some should be monitored as signs of potential weakness in the local economy. One of these is local stock prices; where concerns about the impact of Asian economic crisis have adversely affected the stock prices of local stalwarts such as QUALCOMM and Callaway Golf. Although prices overall have not fallen, their growth has slowed significantly. Another component to watch is building permits. While the number of residential units authorized is up compared to 1997, they have dropped when the comparison is made on a month-to-month basis. The frantic pace that was in evidence at the end of 1997 has slowed a little.
Overall, though, the outlook remains positive for the economy of San Diego. With February's gain, the Index has now increased for 35 months in a row. It is likely then that the local economy will be strong throughout the rest of 1998.
February's increase puts the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 142.6, up from January's reading of 142.0. There was no revision to the previously reported change of +0.4 for January. The fluctuations of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County for the last year are given below:
Index % Change
1997 FEB 132.7 +0.9
MAR 133.8 +0.8
APR 134.2 +0.3
MAY 134.6 +0.3
JUN 135.1 +0.4
JUL 135.7 +0.4
AUG 136.4 +0.5
SEP 137.4 +0.7
OCT 139.0 +1.2
NOV 140.6 +1.1
DEC 141.4 +0.6
1998 JAN 142.0 +0.4
FEB 142.6 +0.4
Index of Leading Economic Indicators +0.4%
The index for San Diego county that Includes
the components listed below (February)
Source: University of San Diego
Building Permits -0.57%
Residential units authorized by building
permits in San Diego County (February)
Source: Construction Industry Research Board
Unemployment Insurance +1.01%
Initial claims for unemployment insurance in
San Diego County, inverted (February)
Source: Employment Development Department
Stock Prices + 0.08%
San Diego Stock Exchange Index (February)
Source: San Diego Daily Transcript
Consumer Confidence + 0.61%
An index of consumer confidence in
San Diego County (February)
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune
Help Wanted Advertising + 0.69%
An index of help wanted advertising
in the San Diego Union-Tribune (February)
Source: Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce
National Economy + 0.63%
Index of Leading Economic Indicators
(February)
Source: The Conference Board
For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators or the activities of the University's Economic Research Group, please contact:
Professor Alan Gin
TEL: (619) 260-4883
FAX: (619) 260-4891
School of Business Administration
University of San Diego
5998 Alcala Park
San Diego, CA 92110
E-mail: AGin@prodigy.net
Internet: acusd.edu
SOURCE University of San Diego
CO: University of San Diego
ST: California
IN: FIN
SU:
04/21/98 15:14 EDT prnewswire.com |
