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Gold/Mining/Energy : GOLD-XAU

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To: Superhawk who wrote (1437)4/22/1998 12:55:00 AM
From: ahhaha  Read Replies (3) of 1756
 
From an old gold buff who bought it when it broke $35/oz, don't buy coins or physical gold. they'll burn you on the spread if you want to buy or sell. There's only one way to play. Buy stock. Don't buy cheapo gold companies. Don't buy foreign except Canadian. Keep it simple. Buy ABX, NEM, HM. They're good enough. The stocks also are not a problem wrt your IRA.

Holding physical gold is trying to win some absurd end game. If circumstances arise where only physical gold is fungible, it will be essentially infinite in price and therefore worthless. The entire world would have to be in such dire straights that gold would do you no good. After all, you have to eventually convert the gold into something else. The only thing you can spend is some form of currency, so inevitably you'll have to convert the gold back to currency. They won't take gold at Safeway.

The only purpose in holding any form of gold is to protect yourself from people using monopoly power to get inflated wages. Obviously as that unfolds the world's central banks have to go in and make inflationary demands disappear. This is done by generating unemployment through interest rate increases. The longer the authorities delay raising rates, the higher gold will go.

The reason why the rate increases won't knock gold down is because the authorities don't want to throw the economy out with the rising rate water, so they will take a "wait-and-see" attitude. They think they learned from the past. No. They will delay and gold will go higher because everyone will be out striking. All power to the peoples!

There are other problems with physical gold like the possibility of theft. Stick it in a bank deposit box and the bank locks the doors. Stick it somewhere else and someone steals it. As you stated you have to pay rent on it. The government might make it illegal for you to hold it. They've done it before. Believe me, it's a headache and you don't do any better with physical gold. You have to remember that you don't hold it forever. Forget this balanced portfolio blab. The perfect balanced hedged portfolio earns at the perfect interest rate which is well-approximated by the return on long treasuries. 5%/yr. Ho-hum.

You buy gold through gold stocks now because you believe it's cheap. There is no other valid rationalization for so doing. Buy good gold stocks like I've mentioned above.
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