<< So how high does IOM have to go before you'll
declare you were mistaken? 11? 12? 15? Just curious >>
I'll try to look at this logically: A company with decellerating
revenues and no profits is not the type of stock that breaks new
52 week highs after just bouncing around at 52 week lows.
Therefore, I know that the "tendancy" of this stock will be to
drop below 5 over the long haul, until profits show up again. So,
my first inclination is to stay away until Iomega posts some profits
and CLIK! is proven to be a success. So if it breaks 15 and there are
still no earnings, I still will not be convinced.
Now, lets factor in the current market environment. I don't know if
you guys know this, but recently several stocks have taken massive
runs from single digits to over 30. (KLB, SEVL, KTEL, ITVU, THNK,
etc.. etc..) The list goes on. There is a mania currently going on.
I think that IOM can get caught up in this (and probably has). I
have never, ever, seen such a large run in so many low priced stocks.
To summarize then:
(1) Iomega will be drifting down until they show profits again (which
I contend will probably not happen again). This will be the long term
trend.
(2) Iomega may rise smartly in the short term as cheap stocks are
having their day in the sun.
The problem is that I know that people will be buying into this
mania instead of selling and getting some money back from the
fiasco. So when I see people like Jack jumping up and down about a
1/2 point gain, I just smile, because I know what's going to happen.
As for me, I went somewhat defensive today for the first time this year (no margin) . I sold ALL my internet related stuff today (except for YHOO, but that may be next.) The internet sector is in a classic sector rotation now. The 'blue chips' first, then the 'mid class', then the 'junk'. The 'junk' has been having it's day, and the 'blue chips' are starting to show signs of fraying.
Good luck to you!
kp |
