Steve, Re: BKX.X, Thieves and Bloated Whales
You need to choose smaller groups -- that's a lot of work <g>
What a sick looking group. In the BHWAT Model Portfolio that I
created in Jan, 1997, there were 26 stocks and 8 of them were banks
(BK, BPOP, CNB, FTEN, NB, SOTR, ZION, and FCLR). Now there are none.
The why will be obvious by these numbers:
3/31 FA
PRICE SCORE
10.00 NB 55 85 77 OK 74 4
9.36 CCI 102 182 160 over 142 3
8.13 BAC 52 96 86 OK 83 2
7.83 CMB 84 149 139 OK 135 2
5.52 ONE 36 65 58 under 63 1
5.40 FTU 39 62 62 over 57 1
4.85 NOB 22 43 41 under 42 3
4.68 WFC 245 384 375 over 331 2
4.67 USB 71 130 127 OK 125 1
3.88 FCN 51 101 93 OK 88 2
3.71 BK 35 67 64 OK 63 3
3.25 JPM 95 148 140 OK 134 1
3.10 FLT 57 90 86 OK 85 3
2.78 WAMU 45 76 69 under 72 2
2.77 PNC 38 66 60 OK 60 3
2.73 WB 54 90 86 OK 85 1
2.63 MEL 38 73 69 over 63 3
2.55 STI 47 82 80 over 75 0
2.54 KEY 24 44 40 over 38 2
2.31 BKB 65 116 110 under 110 2
2.28 NCC 45 77 73 under 73 2
1.84 BT 76 136 133 over 120 2
1.65 CMA 36 73 67 busted 106 0
1.56 SUB 29 53 50 none 50 1
The top ten big boys were moving into NOB (2.4%) and WAMU (5.3%) and
out of FLT (-1.4%) BT (-1.2%) and CMA (-.8%)in the month of March.
Some additional interesting tid-bits: 1) of the 24, 11 are at a
5-year high PE ratio, 2) none have managed to double their revenues
over the five years, and 3) only 7 have been able to have annual,
sequential EPS growth.
Most are selling at more than twice their PE ratio in 1994. Can you
imagine what will happen to them if the fed pulls the trigger. Get
the harpoons ready.
BTW, When I use Index, it is the S&P 500.
Berney |
