Hi Richard,
You seem bitter about leaks/releases/tight holes. So, please do consider this. Maybe the management of the companies involved "think" (based on drill penetration rates, drill cuttings, mud log and other drilling data) that they have a really good gas well. And maybe they even "think" that they will run more casing. And maybe they are "thinking" that it will in fact likely be run to T.D.. BUT, right now they do not have the log suite run across the current open hole section of the well. And, they have not yet got any test flow data nor an indication of permeability. SO THE TRUTH IS, THEY REALLY ARE NOT SURE THEMSELVES AS TO WHAT THE H--- IT IS THAT THEY HAVE. BASED UPON THEIR EXPERIENCE, THEY HAVE A PRETTY GOOD IDEA AS TO WHAT THEY HAVE. BUT, BASED ON THEIR EXPERIENCE, THEY ALSO RECOGNIZE THAT THEY DO NOT KNOW WITH CERTAINTY WHAT THEY HAVE.
If they announced today that they have gas in the Boundary Lake/Swan Hills/Keg River or whatever, and WE (on the encouragement of that news) went out and picked up a few hundred thousand shares at $1.75, how kindly would we feel towards that management if next week they announce disappointing logs,tests, etc. and do not run any more casing but simply plug back to the shallow zones for future testing. THEY DO NOT KNOW DEFINITIVELY AT THIS POINT WHAT THEY HAVE. THEY ARE ONLY INTERPRETTING, AS BEST THAT THEY CAN, AN INCOMPLETE DATA SET AND TELLING US AS MUCH AS THEY CAN REALISTICALLY TELL US WITHOUT OPENING THEMSELVES UP TO DIRECTOR/OFFICER LIABILITY ACTIONS.
Now, I certainly do share your opinion that we in fact have a gas well. And, WE WERE ALL TOLD THAT THERE IS NO LEDUC. So, if we have gas it is necessarily below the Leduc. To me, with my knowledge of the area, that is very SIGNIFICANT!!! I NEED NO PRESS RELEASE NOR LEAK!! I am prepared to access public well records, make my own parameter assumptions, value calculations, etc. and then "speculate" only that logging and testing will in fact confirm gas in the Swan Hills. As I said earlier, I need speculate on this detail because at this point in time, NO ONE KNOWS DEFINITIVELY IF THIS WELL WILL BE COMMERCIAL IN "ANY" ZONE, DEEP OR SHALLOW!!
BTW, myself, I would not speculate a singular loonie that Apache will re-drill for another shot at the Leduc anywhere within a mile of this well. (They don't need the Leduc to have large reserves. The Swan Hills, etc. will do nicely.)
Later,
grayhairs
P.S. - I do agree Nesbitt is not charitable!! I deal there and their commissions really hurt!! I wish that "ALL" their buying the last 3 days was mine!! |
