Mark, I've always thought that Adobe had the best chance of capitalizing on the desktop video revolution, especially since their Premiere application is the de facto standard for off-the-shelf editing software. It is bundled with nearly every entry to mid-level digitizing card. The problem with Premiere is that it is still too slow and clunky. When it can directly access "real-time" effects from some of these digitizing cards, then it will really be somethng to reckon with. Right now, you still have to "render" effects as simple and basic as a dissolve. That's unacceptable for most professional level work, where editors are used to looking at various edits over and over to fine-tune their final edit decisions. Imagine if you had to "render" every time you cut and pasted a phrase in your word processor!
Adobe After Effects is the number one affordable choice for layering/compositing in post-production. Sure, it may not be quite as capable and fast as the other dedicated high-level systems out there like Flint and Flame, but After Effects can and has been used in everything from television commerical post production to feature film effects.
Another software company that has blown attendees away at the various professional trade shows is MetaTools. They have specialized software applications for as little as $99 that can do some pretty amazing things.
I haven't studied the fundamentals of either company to know whether they make sense as a stock investment, but these two are definitely leaders in my industry.
Truevision is a hardware manufacturer that has some very capable digital video cards, but they're being challenged by cheaper cards in the $600 to $999 range that are not as capable, but good enough for many. So their market is probably going to continue to degenerate into something akin to the clone market for CPUs, viciously competitive with very slim margins. The last I heard, Avid was no longer buying components from them.
You might want to take a look at Data Translation (DATX). I have written extensively about this company on the DATX board; they are the #2 competitor for digital nonlinear video. So far, I've been wrong on where the stock would go for the past 6 months, but I think they have suffered due to association with the same market Avid's in. They have an entry-level card bundled with Adobe Premiere for around $4,000, with very impressive video quality. At a PE of 10, with impressive earnings gains, and no losses, along with an industry-acclaimed cost-effective product lineup, DATX should do well in the next 6 months.
Good luck,
D. Kuspa |
