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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (7503)4/22/1998 1:15:00 PM
From: C. K. Humphries  Read Replies (1) of 18691
 
You wrote <<Alex, I am short ZONA and underwater. It is riding on PFE coattails right now. Soon investors will figure out that PFE is a competitor and reduces ZONA potential (as if it ever had much).>>

Roger, I'm in the same position as you. I'm still trying to figure out what was holding this thing up. You have all of the law suits filed, which are legit, you have the article in Fortune, all of the competition and a management that has clearly been playing games with the truth and it is still going. I was really surprised about the Oppenheimer support which has destroyed my short position in the short run. I guess they figure with the credibility of Schering Plough, it was worth the risk given the incredible hype factor of another ED drug like Viagra. I'm completely convinced that long term Zonagen will fail miserably mainly because the drug is marginally effective if you separate out placebo effect and has bad side-effects. My worry now is that the New Drug Application will be filed and it will shoot up to 40. After that, its bound to fall like a stone. There will be nothing happening and it will take a long time to get the approval from the FDA. With Viagra out there, no way are they getting fast-track status. Of course I didn't think they'd get a patent either. So what do I know. Logic or true value have no place in determining where this stock will go. I was thinking about buying some calls to protect my position if the NDA gets filed. What do you think? Kent
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