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Technology Stocks : Wolf speed

WOLF 18.60

-1.5%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: w2j2 who wrote (816)	4/22/1998 2:44:00 PM
From: Toby	Read Replies (3) of 10714

Dear Walter, SiC looks good on paper, but LEDs are sold on price/performance and sapphire is cheaper and better now. There is a stronger argument in favor of SiC for lasers, especially power lasers, but there was a strong argument for GaAs vs. Si integrated circuits 10-15 years ago and people like Seymour Cray went broke chasing what was famously called by I wish I knew whom "the material of the future. Always has been and always will be." A rule of thumb is that an entrenched technology won't get replaced unless the new one is 7-10X better, depending on what you are talking about. SiC doesn't have that kind of edge. The reason for this rule is salient in this case also. Once a technology is entrenched, numerous firms invest in it and push it along. The guy with the new technology is often a startup, or at least a lightly funded R&D group w/in a big and inertial company. Cree was going it pretty much alone with SiC optoelectronics, but now has Siemens on board at least. I'm sure I'll get a rise out of glen or Intl. Harvester on these thoughts, but what the heck...

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