Barbara; I've been about as bullish as any one on this thread, maybe
not the most bullish but more than most.
Now I'm more frustrated than anything..as I saw thin ice and
pulled back..then we get on thinker ice..then we head back to the
thin ice..and so I came all the way into Money Markets yesterday
and it looks like she wants to still rocket up..
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Well calling tops I've always said is harder by far than calling
a bottom..
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I started something new and simple now along with my DOW head/tail
thingy.
Yahoo makes it easy for me to get the 25 Volume leaders, gainers,
and losers, of the NYSE, AMEX, and NAZ..AND to down load them
reasdy to go into a spread sheet.
So taking them samples from the high volume..and the biggest gainers, and biggest losers, of the three major markets I can toss them in
a work sheet and look at the MONEY FLOW..of this bunch..
ie gain or loss x volume = Money Flow..it goes beyound A/D
and while I haven't finnished doing all I want with it..
I see it's got a lot of potenual..
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I can tell you with out a doubt in my mind the INDEXES are lieing
right now..except for the Naz..money flow is out of the market..
today..or was early, this grabing Volume , HIGH , LOWS ..
and suming them up by change x volume , take the result divided
by the price average gives a percent up/down..based on the average
stock price in the pool.. this is not just if the price of
the issues went up or down it's showing the cash that changed
hands positive or negitive in respect to an average price.
Keep in mind an index can move up when thinly traded stocks
move up more than the heavy traded ones move down.
Did you not notice a negitive tick with the indexes going up
today ?
So an index does not always tell you if money is moving in or
out of the market ..it can lead you to think the market is
positive when in fact the heavy traded stocks are ticking down
and thinly traded ones are offsetting that.
This can inverse to..
ONE MORE TIME, NO ONE CAN DO TRADITIONAL TA on an INDEX, and not
get fooled at least 50% of the time..the stuff you are TAing
is garbage..and garbage in garbage out..
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The peak of any index may only be thanks to a few thinly traded
stocks that shot up..and the bottom the inverse of that..
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All this to say what I saw ( change x volume+sumed) today did not
look real bad but it was a far cry from what the indexs said we
did..I'm not short but I'm not long..just frustrated.
Program trading has taken over the show..
Best place to have been in a general sense was on the NAZ under
$8 stocks..
Something sure don't look right with the NYSE, and AMEX index..
by rights they should have gone down..I just wonder now with
the super computers and built in artificial intelligence if they
can't whip the indexes back and forth, by knowing just when
to buy and sell the thinly traded stocks, and moving more
volume but just the oposite in the heavy traded ones..as you
do the thinly traded ones..
If I had my hands on one and access to making it trade
automatically I could set it up to do just that..and to adjust
to changes in the market conditions..actually get it to create
thoes changes I wanted in the index..by pumping or dumping
the thinest traded stocks of the day. I think I'v stumbled
onto what the program trading is about, and we all seem to be
at it's mercy..and it has none.
IT's slowly killing the stock market..but like a cancer that
won't really show itself untill it's to late.
We are minnows about to have our plate cleaned by a mindless
and super borg type computer program, and this is no joke.
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Unless we learn to do like the pilot fish and attach ourselves
to the way it's trading..but it's soooo fassst in its' skiming
we won't get many morsels..then it runs up volume..which is
overhead it don't care if it gets just a 1/16th it'l take it
on volume..so this super massive but short term trading by
the brogs computer..skims value off the stocks that it treats
as commodities..and these commodities have an overhead in them
each time they change hands..the underlying issue must do
better and better to offest that "nut" on it's shares..the
longer term investor is paying for all this too..
There is no way to curtail it unless we put a tax on these super
short trades one day they will be the cause of the whole system to wind up tanking.
I fear not so much S.S. going broke..but every IRA..and 401K plan in the nation going belly up. Then what ?
Jim
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