Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Lucretius who wrote (20065)	4/22/1998 7:46:00 PM
From: Alias Shrugged	Read Replies (2) of 95453

Good question, LT. I guess my thinking starts with the reasons (real or perceived) that the market would tumble. Inflation fears ?? Weaker dollar?? Return of Asian flu ?? Higher interest rates ?? Earnings jitters ?? Only the last one will not kill drilling stocks. Asian flu implies weaker demand and lower oil prices. Weaker dollar may be OK, as oil will be cheaper to foreign countries since their currency should appreciate against the dollar and dollar-priced oil. Higher interest rates will strengthen (?) our currency - not good. Inflation will raise the nominal price of oil - would be OK if other currencies appreciate just as much. (Did you see the rise in gold stocks - also copper and aluminum have down well lately; somebody smells inflation) It is tough to come up with a scenario that doesn't hit our stocks also. I bought 20 MU May 27.5 puts for 3/8ths. If the market holds up for a while tomorrow am, i may buy some more cheap technology puts. Under what conditions would you see our stocks not suffer as much as the general market? Mike

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